中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】金工李倩云：如何优雅地“抄底”——一种黄金比例数交易策略

Group 1: Trading Strategies and Market Signals - The report introduces a trading strategy based on the Fibonacci ratio, suggesting to buy stocks that have previously experienced a monthly uptrend when they drop to 0.618 and 0.8 levels, although further refinement of buy point selection is necessary [2] - The securities company index completed a monthly 9-turn sequence signal in July 2024, indicating potential upward market movement, supported by multiple indices showing time resonance [2] - The relative price of the securities company index compared to the bank index reached a new low, indicating extreme undervaluation of the securities sector [2] Group 2: Alcohol Industry Insights - The shift of consumption tax collection to the retail end may compress profits for low-end liquor companies while potentially benefiting high-end brands like Moutai, which can pass tax burdens to consumers [3] - The consumption tax reform is expected to increase industry concentration, as larger enterprises with strong pricing power can better absorb tax impacts compared to smaller firms [3] - The report highlights the need for improved channel management in the liquor industry, especially if tax collection shifts to the retail stage, drawing comparisons to the tobacco industry's regulatory framework [3] Group 3: Natural Rubber Market Analysis - The report outlines ten key questions regarding the natural rubber market, including seasonal price fluctuations and the impact of labor costs on processing profits in Thailand [4] - It discusses the expected upward movement in natural rubber prices, driven by supply-demand dynamics and production capacity changes in Hainan [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with capacity expansion and currently low valuations in the natural rubber downstream sector [4] Group 4: PCB Industry Growth - The report indicates that the AI boom is driving significant growth in the data communication PCB sector, with expected spending on cloud infrastructure reaching $138.3 billion in 2024, a 26.1% increase year-on-year [5] - The demand for PCBs is anticipated to rise due to the upgrade of server platforms and the increasing volume of AI servers, with AI server shipments projected to grow by 38.4% in 2023 [5] - The report highlights the expected growth in the switch and optical module markets, driven by the transition to higher-speed standards like 800G, which will further elevate PCB value [5]