锂矿行业：积极因素逐渐增加,行业拐点临近

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the lithium mining industry, indicating potential left-side layout opportunities despite the overall market downturn [2][20]. Core Insights - From 2018 to 2023, China's lithium carbonate production experienced an annual growth rate of 31.11%, with expectations for continued supply expansion post-2024 [2][5]. - The growth rate of the new energy vehicle market is projected to slow down in 2024 after years of rapid expansion [2][6]. - The current price of lithium carbonate has dropped approximately 80% from its peak in 2022 due to reduced demand for electric vehicles and increased supply [2][8]. - The decline in lithium prices has significantly impacted the performance of lithium-related listed companies, with many reporting substantial losses [2][12]. - Despite the low prices, there remains significant inventory pressure in the lithium carbonate market, with no clear signs of inventory reduction [2][15]. - The report anticipates that high-cost production capacity will gradually be eliminated as production cuts may increase [2][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The global lithium supply is expected to reach 1.4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2024, while demand is projected at 1.37 million tons LCE [5]. - Argentina's lithium production increased by 49.7% in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 [5]. - The report highlights that the lithium carbonate price decline has led to some A-share lithium mining companies operating below their cost levels [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the overall recovery point for the industry may take time, there are opportunities for investment in the lithium sector, particularly as excess production capacity is gradually cleared [2][20]. - The demand for lithium resources is expected to rise due to the growth in energy storage, with global lithium battery shipments projected to reach 2,211.8 GWh by 2025 and 6,080.4 GWh by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 22.8% [20].