贵州茅台：H1业绩稳健，提升分红优化股东回报

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 1674 RMB per share [1][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 68.57 billion RMB in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. The revenue from series liquor reached 13.15 billion RMB, up 30.5% year-on-year. In Q2, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 28.86 billion RMB, a 12.9% increase year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 7.21 billion RMB, up 42.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company has announced a cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, aiming for a payout ratio of no less than 75% annually, with expected dividend yields of 3.6%, 4.2%, and 4.6% for the respective years [6]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 87 billion RMB, 99.4 billion RMB, and 110.73 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.4%, 14.3%, and 11.4% respectively [6]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of 52.46 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 41.76 RMB, with a projected EPS of 69.25 RMB for 2024 [2][3]. - The operating income is projected to grow from 150.56 billion RMB in 2023 to 175.77 billion RMB in 2024, with a steady increase expected through 2026 [3]. - The company’s gross margin remained stable in H1, while the expense ratio for the first half was 6.8%, benefiting from improved management efficiency [11]. Product Composition - The product mix consists of 83.9% Moutai liquor and 16.1% series liquor, indicating a strong reliance on the flagship product [4]. Market Performance - The stock price as of August 8, 2024, was 1430.69 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 179.72 billion RMB [14]. The stock has experienced a decline of 21.8% over the past year [14].