Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 156.00, indicating a potential upside of 42.9% from the current price of HKD 109.20 [7]. Core Insights - The company has turned profitable in Q2 2024, reporting an adjusted non-GAAP operating profit of USD 48 million, a significant improvement from a loss of USD 193 million in Q2 2023. The operating cash outflow has narrowed to USD 404 million [1]. - The strong performance is attributed to the rapid growth in global sales of the drug Zebrutinib, which increased by 107% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter to USD 637 million, with U.S. sales growing by 114% year-on-year [1]. - The report projects an increase in the peak global sales forecast for Zebrutinib from USD 4.4 billion to USD 5.2 billion [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been raised by 13-18%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on Zebrutinib sales and adjustments in gross margin and operating expense forecasts [2]. - The expected revenues are USD 3.463 billion for 2024, USD 4.366 billion for 2025, and USD 5.252 billion for 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.8%, 26.1%, and 20.3% respectively [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of USD 410 million by 2026, compared to a projected loss of USD 762 million in 2024 [3][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 86.0% by 2026, up from 84.1% in 2024 [8]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in operating expenses, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios decreasing to 49% and 48% respectively by 2024 [1]. - The company’s cash flow situation is projected to improve, with free cash flow expected to turn positive by 2025 [6].
百济神州：2Q24泽布替尼海外销售大超预期，费用结构持续优化，上调目标价