2024年7月物价数据点评：7月CPI涨幅略有扩大，PPI同比跌幅结束收窄过程

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2024, the CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in June, exceeding market expectations by 0.3 percentage points[1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a significant increase in vegetable prices, which surged by 9.3% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the CPI increase[4] - Core CPI continued to decline, indicating persistent low inflation, with the core CPI year-on-year growth rate falling to 0.4%[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI remained unchanged at -0.8% year-on-year in July, ending a three-month trend of narrowing declines[1][6] - The decline in PPI was attributed to falling prices in domestic commodities such as cement, coal, and steel, as well as a decrease in overseas prices for copper and aluminum[6][7] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of weakness, with the manufacturing PMI's output price index dropping to 46.3%, indicating contraction[6][8] Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Future Outlook - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 86.2 in June, below the neutral level of 100[5] - The outlook for CPI in August is projected to be around 0.4%, with expectations that CPI will remain below 1.0% for the second half of the year[6] - The government has room to implement further macroeconomic policies to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies[6]