宏观经济评论

Economic Data - July manufacturing PMI index was 46.8, significantly below the expected 49, indicating a potential economic slowdown[2] - July non-farm employment decreased by 65,000 to 114,000, below the consensus expectation of 175,000, raising recession concerns[2] - Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, triggering fears of an impending recession based on historical patterns[2] Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at the July 31 meeting, with the next meeting scheduled for September 18[3] - Market expectations suggest a potential rate cut of 50 basis points in September, though volatility in the next 47 days could lead to a smaller cut of 25 basis points[3] - The Fed is cautious about inflation risks, preferring to risk a recession rather than allowing inflation to spiral out of control[3] Market Strategy - Recent market volatility is attributed to poor economic data and Japan's interest rate hike, which has affected yen carry trades[4] - The VIX index spiked above 60, the highest since 2020, before stabilizing below 40, indicating reduced market panic[5] - Investors should be cautious of crowded trades in popular sectors, as sudden market reversals can lead to liquidity issues[5] Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway's reduction of Apple holdings by 50% and increasing cash reserves to $200 billion raises concerns among investors about potential market downturns[6] - AMD reported a 9% year-over-year revenue increase, with net profit up 881%, driven by data center and AI business growth[11] - Amazon's Q2 revenue increased by 10%, but its Q3 guidance fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant stock price drop[10]