纺织服装行业研究方法

Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry is divided into two main segments: processing and manufacturing (focused on export markets, with core elements being equipment, technology, cost, and scale) and brand retail (focused on domestic markets, with core elements being design, brand, channels, and supply chain) [6] - The industry is transitioning from a manufacturing-driven model to a brand-retail-driven model, with the latter generally offering higher profitability [61] Processing and Manufacturing Segment - Textile fibers are categorized into natural fibers (e.g., cotton, wool) and chemical fibers (e.g., polyester, nylon) [11][15] - Key manufacturing processes include weaving, knitting, and non-woven fabric production [16] - Major companies in this segment include Weiqiao Textile, Huafang Textile, and Luthai Textile, which specialize in cotton spinning, dyeing, and integrated production [19][20] - The segment is characterized by overcapacity, with long-term supply exceeding demand, and production is heavily influenced by global GDP and import market dynamics [32][28] Brand Retail Segment - The domestic retail market is driven by factors such as replacement demand (64%), relocation purchases (22%), and wedding-related purchases (8%) [53][54] - Companies are shifting from traditional wholesale models to direct retail models, with a focus on channel control and brand diversification [49][47] - Key performance indicators include average selling price (ASP), store expansion, same-store sales growth, and inventory turnover [58] Valuation and Investment Strategy - Valuation methods include PE, PEG, PB, PS, DCF, and sum-of-the-parts (SOTP), with different methods suited to different types of companies (e.g., PE for stable profit companies, PB for asset-heavy manufacturers) [60] - The processing and manufacturing segment is recommended for companies with low valuations, potential earnings surprises, and catalysts such as Weixing股份, Hangmin股份, and Jiangnan High Fiber [65] - The brand retail segment is recommended for stable performers like Septwolves and Saint Angelo, with Meibang Apparel noted for potential operational improvements [65] Market Dynamics - China's textile and apparel exports account for 35% of global exports, with significant market shares in the EU (42%), the US (37%), and Japan (84%) [27] - Despite a weakening price advantage, China maintains strong competitiveness due to ample production capacity and comprehensive supply chain support [30]