首席经济学家楚建芳《宏观研究方法》

Macroeconomic Indicators - GDP growth is measured through production, expenditure, and income methods, with components including household consumption (C), investment (I), government consumption (G), and net exports (NX)[10] - CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) are key indicators for inflation, with CPI being a primary tool for monetary policy observation[11] - Monetary policy indicators include MO, M1, and M2, with M2 reflecting overall social demand and future inflation pressure[12] Investment and Consumption - Credit growth leads investment growth by approximately 1 quarter, with central government investments driving local investments in the current cycle[21][22] - Consumer confidence and employment are leading indicators for consumption growth, with retail sales and income levels being key metrics[25][27] - Investment growth is influenced by factors such as credit growth, interest rates, and export performance[24] Export and Inflation - Export growth is influenced by global economic conditions, RMB exchange rates, and export tax rebates, with OECD leading indicators and PMI new export orders as key predictors[34][35] - Inflation is driven by factors such as food prices, global commodity prices, and monetary supply, with M2 leading inflation by 12 months[39][42][66] Macroeconomic Policies - Monetary policy tools include reserve requirement ratios, interest rates, and open market operations, with a focus on dynamic fine-tuning[52] - Fiscal policy is characterized by budget deficits and government-led investments, with fiscal spending having a multiplier effect on GDP[62][65]