电池行业深度报告：2025年出海趋势加速，国内龙头全球份额有望提振

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the battery industry [2] Core Views - The report predicts that the overseas electric vehicle (EV) market will experience rapid growth in 2025, driven by multiple factors including stricter carbon emission standards in Europe, improved supply chains in the US, and policy support in emerging markets [7] - Chinese battery manufacturers are expected to increase their global market share, with leading companies like CATL, BYD, and Gotion High-Tech benefiting from the accelerated overseas expansion trend [7] - The report highlights that the LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) battery route is likely to see faster growth in overseas demand, with Chinese companies holding a competitive advantage in the LFP supply chain and technological innovation [7] Key Market Trends Europe - The EU has set stringent carbon emission reduction targets, requiring a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions for new passenger cars by 2030 compared to 2021 levels, and a 100% reduction by 2035 [11] - To meet these targets, the EU's BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) market share is expected to reach 20% by 2025, with a projected year-on-year sales growth of 26% [13] United States - The US has relaxed some restrictions on China's new energy industry, particularly in the battery supply chain, with key material restrictions postponed until 2027 [15] - Despite long-term challenges, Chinese companies are expected to maintain a significant presence in the US market through overseas manufacturing and technology licensing [15] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Brazil, and India are experiencing rapid growth in EV sales, driven by policy incentives and the entry of Chinese EV manufacturers [18] - In 2023, Thailand's EV sales increased by over 400%, while India and Vietnam also saw significant growth in EV adoption [18] Supply Chain and Competitive Landscape - Chinese battery manufacturers have secured over 35% of the overseas market share through direct exports, with CATL leading at 27% [7] - Overseas manufacturing by Chinese companies is still in the early stages, with major players like CATL, Gotion High-Tech, and EVE Energy expected to start production by 2026 [7] - The report predicts that the overseas market will become more concentrated, with leading companies like CATL potentially capturing over 40% of the market share [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading battery manufacturers such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Gotion High-Tech, which are well-positioned to benefit from the global EV and energy storage market growth [7] Energy Storage Market - The global energy storage battery market grew by 58% in 2023, outpacing the growth of the power battery market, which grew by 43% [49] - Chinese companies like CATL and BYD are significant players in the global energy storage market, with CATL ranking second in overseas power battery installations [49] LFP Battery Advantages - LFP batteries are expected to dominate the global energy storage market due to their lower cost and higher safety compared to ternary lithium batteries [58] - Chinese companies have a strong advantage in the LFP supply chain, with innovations in battery technology such as CTP (Cell to Pack) and blade batteries improving energy density and cycle life [64] Battery Recycling - China is expected to maintain a leading position in the battery recycling market, with a projected recycling capacity of 1100 GWh by 2030 [87] - The recycling of ternary lithium batteries is seen as economically viable, with potential profits of 918.8 RMB per ton through dry recycling methods [84]