交运物流行业周报：关注内需提振政策及快递行业估值修复弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the logistics industry, focusing on domestic demand stimulation policies and the valuation recovery potential in the express delivery sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, particularly in the express delivery sector, which is expected to see a growth rate of 15%-20% in 2024. The report also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the industry due to increased consumption [1][8]. - In the shipping sector, the report notes a slight decline in freight rates due to easing supply-demand tensions, while the oil shipping market is expected to show price elasticity in the fourth quarter [5][18]. - The infrastructure segment is recommended for investment, with a focus on high-quality cash flow assets and dividend capabilities, as the long-term trend of declining risk-free interest rates continues [6][7]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The report indicates that freight rates on major routes have decreased, with SCFI rates for the East and West US routes down by 2.8% and European routes down by 2.5% [4][11]. - The Middle East geopolitical situation remains complex, with ongoing negotiations expected to impact market conditions [4]. - The VLCC market has shown signs of a downturn, with daily rates dropping by 5% [18]. Infrastructure - National highway traffic volume remained stable, with a 1% increase in passenger traffic but a 2% decrease in freight traffic. High-speed road traffic saw a 3% decline [6][21]. - Railway passenger turnover increased by 5%, while freight turnover grew by 4.1% [7][21]. - Port cargo throughput grew by 3%, with container throughput increasing by 6.9% [7][21]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw a total of 801.6 billion packages completed in the first half of 2024, marking a 23.1% year-on-year increase. Revenue reached 653 billion yuan, up 15.1% [6][27]. - The report forecasts a continued strong performance in the express delivery sector, driven by demand in lower-tier markets and changing consumer habits [8][27]. - Recommended stocks include undervalued leaders such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express [1][8]. Aviation - Domestic air travel has seen a rise in passenger volume, with a 1% week-on-week increase and a 6% increase compared to 2023 [32]. - The report anticipates further recovery in international routes due to relaxed visa policies [32]. - Recommended stock in the aviation sector is Spring Airlines [1][32]. Logistics - Cross-border air freight prices have slightly decreased, but remain relatively high year-on-year [9]. - The report suggests focusing on the cross-border logistics supply chain, recommending stocks like Jiayou International and China Foreign Trade [9].