计算机行业研究方法

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperforming the Market" [57] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a continuous recovery, with an increase in added value and policy support. The demand is shifting towards upgrading and transformation, particularly in high-growth sectors such as small and medium banks, mobile internet, power grids, high-speed rail, and healthcare. Potential sectors include manufacturing, government, and rural areas. Software outsourcing is still in a downturn, but the most challenging period has passed. New technologies and applications, such as digital earth, IoT, and information security, are emerging [57] Industry Overview - The computer industry is characterized by high fixed costs and low variable costs, with significant economies of scale and strong path dependence. The software sector has high user stickiness and stable growth, while the IT service sector has lower fixed costs and higher variable costs [5][11] - The industry is divided into hardware (PCs, servers, and specialized devices), software (basic and application software), and IT services (outsourcing and system integration) [7][9] Downstream Industry Demand Analysis - IT spending in key domestic industries is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2008 to 2012. The banking sector is highlighted as a stable growth area, with IT investment reaching 55 billion yuan in 2009, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [23][19] - The demand for ATMs is also expected to grow steadily, with the number of ATMs in China projected to increase significantly [24] Company Research and Valuation Methods - The report emphasizes the importance of management capabilities, market potential, and competitive advantages in assessing company performance. Key factors include technology research and development, market capabilities, and proprietary rights [45][48][49] - Valuation methods discussed include DCF, PE, PEG, and PB, with PE being the primary method due to the industry's growth potential [54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively allocating investments in companies such as Tongfang Co., Yuanguang Software, and Shenzhou Taiyue for growth, while suggesting defensive allocations in companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Guangdian Yuntong [57]