贵金属周报：经济数据敏感增大，金银博弈加剧

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased sensitivity to economic data and intensified competition in gold and silver markets, with expectations of fluctuating prices due to potential adjustments in Federal Reserve interest rate policies [4][5]. - The report anticipates that gold will see strong support from global geopolitical tensions and the increasing importance of gold in central bank reserves, despite short-term price volatility [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The U.S. job market has significantly cooled, raising recession concerns and driving up interest rate cut expectations. This has led to a spike in market volatility, with the VIX index reaching its highest level since 2021. However, recent data, such as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rising to 51.4 and a drop in initial jobless claims to 233,000, has eased recession fears slightly [5][9]. - As of August 10, 2024, the market estimates a 49% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a total of three cuts expected within the year [5][9]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, with other beneficiaries including Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and others [10][43]. 3. Precious Metal Prices and Inventory - As of August 9, 2024, SHFE gold prices fell by 1.92% to 560.70 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold prices increased slightly by 0.03% to 2,470.60 USD per ounce. SHFE silver prices dropped by 4.86% to 7,079.00 CNY per kilogram [12][10]. - SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.06 tons to 11 tons, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 4.47 tons to 551 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 89.66 tons to 933 tons [13][10]. 4. Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The report notes that China's manufacturing PMI for July was 49.40%, indicating a slight decline, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI was reported at 46.80 [18][19]. 5. Gold: Fluctuating Expectations - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts and global liquidity changes. The report emphasizes the importance of gold as a reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][10]. 6. Silver: Greater Price Volatility - Silver prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, leading to greater price fluctuations. The report indicates that industrial demand for silver may increase as the economy stabilizes, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [5][10]. 7. Key Industry Companies - The report lists key companies in the industry, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others, providing their respective stock prices and earnings projections [43].