有色金属行业：锂板块供需拆解

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The lithium industry is expected to face a shortage of 13,000 tons of LCE in 2023, followed by surpluses of 86,000 tons and 193,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively [2] - Australia will remain the largest lithium production region from 2023 to 2025, accounting for 39%, 35%, and 33% of global supply, while Africa is projected to be the fastest-growing production area [2][5] - Global energy storage battery shipments are forecasted to grow significantly, with expected volumes of 160 GWh in 2022, 224 GWh in 2023, 309 GWh in 2024, and 425 GWh in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 143%, 40%, 38%, and 38% respectively [2][13] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global lithium production is projected to reach 988,000 tons, 1,314,000 tons, and 1,692,000 tons from 2023 to 2025, with lithium spodumene being the primary source [5] - In China, lithium carbonate production for 2021, 2022, and 2023 was 209,600 tons, 301,300 tons, and 375,600 tons, with year-on-year growth rates of 44% and 25% [7] - China's lithium hydroxide production for the same years was 166,700 tons, 245,100 tons, and 283,000 tons, with growth rates of 47% and 15% [10] Regional Demand Distribution - In 2023, global demand for lithium-ion energy storage batteries reached 173.37 GWh, with China accounting for 30% of this demand [16] - The projected demand for lithium-ion energy storage batteries in 2024 is expected to reach 256 GWh, with a 48% increase from the previous year [16]