国内观察：2024年7月通胀数据：CPI为何回升，PPI为何持平

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2024, the CPI year-on-year increased to 0.5%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change was also 0.5%, compared to -0.2% previously[10] - The July CPI month-on-month growth of 0.5% exceeded the five-year average of 0.4%, with food prices rising by 1.2% and non-food prices by 0.4%[11] - Weather factors significantly impacted food prices, with fresh vegetables increasing by 9.3% and eggs by 3.7% month-on-month, both showing notable seasonal deviations[11] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year remained unchanged at -0.8% in July, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, consistent with the previous month[10] - The structure of PPI showed a divergence, with production materials declining by 0.7% year-on-year while living materials fell by 1.0%, indicating a widening gap[17] - Energy-related industries saw positive growth in PPI, while the automotive sector experienced significant price declines, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures[17] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Risks - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, driven by increased summer travel demand, with airfares, tourism, and hotel prices rising by 22.1%, 9.4%, and 5.8% respectively[3] - Consumer goods prices turned positive year-on-year at 0.5%, but sustainability remains a concern due to last year's low base in July[17] - Risks include potential policy implementation delays and continued downturns in the real estate sector, which could adversely affect overall economic recovery[23]