有色金属 大宗金属周报：美国衰退预期逐步证伪，金价企稳回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that gold prices have stabilized following a significant drop due to temporary liquidity shocks caused by yen arbitrage trading unwinding. The expectation of a U.S. recession is gradually being disproven, leading to a recovery in gold prices. The report suggests that gold has medium to long-term upside potential due to loose monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S., a contraction in dollar credit, and increasing geopolitical tensions [2]. - In the copper sector, prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and lower demand expectations. The report notes that copper smelting margins have worsened, indicating a challenging environment for producers. However, the long-term outlook remains positive due to supply constraints [3]. - The aluminum sector is facing weak downstream demand, leading to price pressures. The report indicates that while short-term conditions are challenging, there may be improvements in the supply-demand balance towards the end of the year [3]. - The small metals segment shows mixed performance, with certain metals like germanium and magnesium experiencing price increases, while others like molybdenum and vanadium pentoxide have seen declines [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. shows initial jobless claims lower than expected, indicating a potentially stronger labor market. Additionally, the U.S. wholesale sales data was below expectations, suggesting economic challenges [9]. - The report notes significant market volatility due to yen arbitrage trading unwinding, which has affected global asset prices [9]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 1.72% in London and 2.32% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while silver prices dropped by 4.75% and 5.59%, respectively. Palladium rose by 1.99%, and platinum fell by 4.84% [18][19]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices decreased by 2.07% in London and 2.75% in Shanghai, with inventories rising by 20.24% in London. The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, reflecting a challenging operational environment [24]. - Aluminum prices showed a mixed trend, with London prices increasing by 2.02% while Shanghai prices fell by 0.68%. The report highlights a rise in aluminum processing margins [30]. - Lead prices fell by 0.54% in London and 3.39% in Shanghai, with lead inventories showing a mixed trend. Zinc prices increased by 1.86% in London but decreased by 2.03% in Shanghai [36]. 4. Valuation Changes - The report states that the current PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 18.98, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The PB_LF stands at 1.87, also reflecting a minor decline [16][17].