磨人的高切低：是继续“冷眼”？还是选择“正视”？

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent market trend shows a "difficult to sustain decline, or a slight rebound" with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.48% and the CSI 300 down 1.56% [1][8] - The report emphasizes that the current round of external interest rate cuts is more of a preventive nature rather than a recessionary one, suggesting that the probability of a deep correction in the US stock market is low [1][8] - The significant rebound in the US non-manufacturing PMI in July alleviates previous market concerns about a recession in the US economy, indicating strong service sector activity [1][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the A-share market has entered a clear "high-cut low" phase since mid-July, driven by both global market trends and domestic expectations for stable growth [1][8] - The report constructs a tracking indicator for the "high-cut low" phenomenon based on the relative strength of all secondary industry indices, indicating that the average duration of such a phase is 2-3 months [1][8] - The report suggests that the internal macro strategy pricing indicator shows a widening gap in fiscal expenditure growth rates, indicating insufficient upward momentum in the market [1][8] Group 3 - The report identifies "domestic demand" and "small-cap stocks" as the areas of pricing that are currently considered "low" [1][8] - It recommends focusing on sectors with upward performance expectations based on domestic demand, particularly in military, innovative pharmaceuticals, and aquaculture [1][8] - The report highlights that the upcoming mid-year earnings disclosures may pose challenges for small-cap stocks [1][8] Group 4 - The report validates four effective investment strategies proposed in the second half of 2023, including technology stocks mirroring US markets, global competitiveness in manufacturing, consumption alternatives, and high dividend strategies [1][8] - Short-term sectors to overweight include global competitiveness in industries such as commercial vehicles, shipbuilding, home appliances, tires, optical modules, and engineering machinery [1][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of interest-sensitive small-cap stocks, particularly in the context of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][8]