中国医药行业：反弹趋势基本确定，业绩有望复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, indicating that the sector is expected to outperform the market over the next 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a confirmed rebound trend in the industry, with expectations for performance recovery starting in the second half of 2024 due to supportive policies and normalization of regulatory environments [1]. - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has declined by 22.9% year-to-date, underperforming the MSCI China Index by 22.5%, with the current dynamic P/E ratio at 23.8 times, below the 12-year historical average [1]. - Key drivers for optimism include the implementation of DRG/DIP 2.0 policies, ongoing support for innovative drugs and medical devices, and a favorable regulatory environment that is expected to enhance profitability for leading companies in the sector [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the healthcare sector's profitability is anticipated to gradually recover starting from the second half of 2024, aided by the normalization of regulatory practices and supportive government policies [1]. - The introduction of DRG/DIP 2.0 aims to accelerate medical insurance fund settlements and support reimbursement for innovative drugs and devices [1]. Policy Support - Recent policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration and the State Drug Administration are designed to expedite the clinical trial approval process for innovative drugs, with a target of completing reviews within 30 days [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing support for the biopharmaceutical industry, including comprehensive backing for research, registration, and financing of innovative drugs and devices [1]. Market Opportunities - The report identifies significant growth potential in the medical device sector, driven by government initiatives to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement programs, with an expected peak in demand from late 2024 to 2025 [1]. - The report expresses confidence in leading companies such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and others, highlighting their solid performance and attractive valuations [1]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the industry, indicating a bullish outlook with target prices suggesting substantial upside potential for several stocks [2][3].