有色金属行业：流动性冲击缓解，继续看好金价上行，铜跌幅有限

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - Liquidity shocks are gradually dissipating, leading to a positive outlook for gold prices driven by recession trades, while copper prices are expected to have limited downside [2][7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Research Insights - Gold prices are influenced by liquidity factors, with recent market adjustments reflecting concerns over recession and the reversal of yen carry trades [2][7] - The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and initial jobless claims indicate a slight easing of economic concerns, supporting a recovery in gold prices [2][7] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to global currency depreciation, geopolitical conflicts, and increasing economic uncertainty [2][7] 2. Market Performance - The industry index fell by 2.70%, underperforming the broader market by 1.21%, ranking 22nd among 30 sub-industries [11] - Key performers in the sub-sectors include aluminum and tungsten, with notable stock movements observed [11][16] 3. Metal Prices and Inventories - Basic metals prices have shown a mixed trend, with copper prices experiencing a decline due to recession fears, while aluminum supply is stabilizing [30][31] - Copper prices are expected to have limited downside due to improving demand and supply constraints [8][30] - Lithium prices have seen a slight decline, but long-term demand remains strong due to the electric vehicle market [10][23] 4. Industry News and Company Announcements - Recent announcements from companies in the sector indicate a focus on managing supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the aluminum and lithium markets [9][10][11]