“煤电联营”专题报告：政策催化不断，煤企迎来机遇

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the coal industry, highlighting opportunities arising from policy catalysts and the integration of coal and electricity operations [2][6]. Core Insights - The coal-electricity integration is encouraged by policies, enhancing the stability and profitability of coal enterprises [2][19]. - The role of coal in peak regulation is increasingly significant, as it provides stability to the power grid amidst the growing demand for electricity and the expansion of renewable energy sources [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the need for coal-fired power to meet the rising peak load demands, especially as renewable energy sources face intermittency issues [2][16]. Summary by Sections Coal as a Stabilizing Force - The coal-electricity sector remains a dominant force in China's energy landscape, with coal-fired power generation accounting for 69.9% of total electricity generation in 2023, despite a decline in installed capacity share [2][11]. - The overall electricity consumption in China is projected to continue growing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% from 2003 to 2023 [6][11]. Peak Regulation Role of Coal - The report highlights the increasing demand for coal-fired power to provide peak regulation, as the highest electricity load reached 133,914 MW in 2023, indicating a growing pressure on the power grid [2][16]. - Policies are being implemented to enhance the flexibility of coal-fired power plants, allowing them to better respond to fluctuating electricity demands [2][13]. Coal-Electricity Integration - The integration of coal and electricity operations is seen as a solution to the profitability imbalance between coal producers and electricity generators, which often experience opposing profit trends based on coal prices [2][17]. - The report notes that the coal-electricity integration model has seen significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.6% from 2016 to 2021, indicating a strong trend towards this operational model [2][19]. Market Dynamics and Policy Catalysts - The report discusses the tightening of long-term coal supply contracts and the impact of market price regulations on coal enterprise profitability, suggesting that coal companies are facing squeezed margins [2][19]. - The marketization of coal-fired electricity pricing is expected to enhance the profitability of power plants, with new pricing mechanisms being introduced in 2024 [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in coal enterprises, particularly those involved in coal-electricity integration, as they are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [2][19].