外贸化学品运输专题：小而美，景气度稳步提升

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment rating for the chemical transportation industry, specifically highlighting Xingtong Co., Ltd. (603209.SH) as a key investment target due to its strategic positioning in international chemical transportation [2][34]. Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted energy trade flows into Europe, with the chemical industry being particularly affected due to its reliance on energy-intensive processes and raw materials derived from oil and natural gas, which account for 38% of energy consumption [2][15]. - The global chemical shipping capacity is expected to remain controlled over the next 2-3 years, with a slowdown in capacity growth due to an aging fleet and stricter environmental regulations. As of June 2024, the total capacity of global chemical ships is 130 million deadweight tons, with a current order backlog representing 12.9% of this capacity [2][34]. - The demand for chemical transportation is projected to grow at a rate between 3.3% and 6.3% from 2023 to 2025, driven by the need for long-distance transportation of chemical goods [2][28]. Summary by Sections Global Chemical Market Overview - The global chemical industry reached a market size of $5.7 trillion in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.9%. China has emerged as the largest chemical sales country, accounting for 44% of the global market [10][11]. - In 2022, the European Union exported $758.9 billion worth of chemicals, representing 42.3% of its total chemical trade, while imports amounted to $775.2 billion [10][15]. Chemical Transportation Dynamics - Chemical transportation is primarily centered around three production and sales hubs, with a focus on inter-regional transport [12]. - The report notes that the supply of core chemical ships is at a low level, particularly in the large stainless steel ship segment, with limited orders and long delivery times [34][35]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply of chemical shipping capacity is expected to slow down, with a significant portion of the fleet aging. The report indicates that 11.3% of the current fleet is over 20 years old [34]. - The combination of supply constraints and increasing demand is likely to strengthen the spot market for chemical transportation [38][40].