华虹半导体：基本面持续上行改善

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) and Hua Hong Company (688347 CH) [2] - The target price for Hua Hong HK is HKD 23.3, with a potential upside of 21%, and for Hua Hong A-shares, it is RMB 43.7, with a potential upside of 27% [2][3] Core Views - Hua Hong Semiconductor's 2Q24 performance met market expectations, with a significant improvement in gross margin and capacity utilization [2] - The company's gross margin in 2Q24 reached 10.5%, exceeding the guidance range, and is expected to continue improving in 3Q24 [2] - The second 12-inch fab in Wuxi is expected to start trial production in 4Q24 and officially operate in 1Q25, contributing to long-term revenue growth [2] - The company anticipates price increases across most product lines in 3Q24 and 4Q24, except for IGBT, which remains weak [2] - The EV/EBITDA target valuation for 2024 has been raised to 11x, reflecting improved fundamentals [2] Financial Performance and Guidance - 2Q24 revenue declined by 24% YoY but showed a sequential improvement, with a 7% QoQ growth expected in 3Q24 [2] - 2Q24 net profit was $6.67 million, down both YoY and QoQ due to increased expenses from new fabs [2] - 3Q24 revenue guidance is$510 million, with a gross margin of 11%, indicating further improvement [2][8] - The company aims to achieve gross margins of 45%-50% for 8-inch fabs and 25%-30% for 12-inch fabs within 12-16 months [2] Valuation and Financial Metrics - Hua Hong HK's current price-to-book ratio is 0.7x, below the historical average of 1.0x, indicating attractive valuation [2][11] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for Hua Hong HK is 4.1x, significantly below the historical average of 15.0x [11] - The company's free cash flow is expected to improve, with a forecast of -$416 million in 2024E and -$313 million in 2025E [6] Industry and Competitive Position - Hua Hong Semiconductor benefits from the semiconductor industry's upward momentum, with improving product mix and pricing power [2] - The company's capacity utilization has significantly improved, supporting gross margin expansion [2] - The Wuxi 12-inch fab's capacity is expected to reach 20,000 wafers per month by the end of 2025, driving long-term growth [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at $1,996 million, with a gross margin of 11.5$492 million, with an EBITDA margin of 24.6% [9] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be $65 million, with a net profit margin of 3.3% [9]