食品及饲料添加剂行业事件点评：巴斯夫因不可抗力停产，维生素A、E价格上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent production halt by BASF due to an incident has led to a supply shortage of Vitamin A and E, which are critical in the feed industry. This is expected to drive prices up and improve market conditions for these vitamins [2] - The recovery of pig farming profits is anticipated to boost the demand for vitamins, particularly as pig feed constitutes the largest portion of total feed production in China [2] - As of August 9, 2024, the wholesale price of live pigs has increased by 42% since the beginning of the year, which is expected to further enhance the profitability of pig farming and consequently the demand for vitamins [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The global market for Vitamin A has only seven producers, with BASF holding a 26.7% market share, while Vitamin E has five producers with BASF holding a 13.8% share. This concentration indicates a potential for significant supply disruptions [2] - Recent maintenance shutdowns at other vitamin production facilities are expected to exacerbate supply constraints [2] Price Trends - As of August 9, 2024, Vitamin A prices reached 210 RMB/kg, and Vitamin E prices reached 150 RMB/kg, marking increases of 132% and 62% respectively since July 29, 2024. Year-to-date, these prices have surged by 190% and 152% [2] - The low proportion of vitamin costs in feed means that downstream industries are less sensitive to price increases, suggesting that demand may remain robust despite rising costs [2] Investment Recommendations - Given the supply gap created by BASF's production halt and the anticipated increase in demand due to improved farming profitability, the outlook for Vitamin A and E is positive, warranting an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2]