宏观专题报告：对于近期长债大幅波动的思考

Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - In late July, China experienced a wave of interest rate cuts, with the MLF unexpectedly lowered by 20 basis points (bp) on July 25[1] - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds fell to historical lows of approximately 2.10% and 2.30%, respectively, marking the lowest levels since 2003 and 2005[1] - As of August 7, the 10-year government bond yield was around 2.13%, while the 30-year bond yield was approximately 2.30%[1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The GDP growth rate declined in Q2, and inflation remained low, indicating significant pressure to stabilize growth[1] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to peak, but the impact may be limited compared to last year's concentrated refinancing bonds[1] - The overall funding environment is expected to remain loose, with potential for further interest rate cuts[1] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The central bank's management of long-term bonds has not relaxed, with a focus on guiding major banks to sell bonds to stabilize yields[1] - The central bank indicated that the downward adjustment of policy rates does not imply an opening of space for long-term bond yields to decline further[1] - The central bank aims to maintain a normal upward-sloping yield curve and is prepared to intervene if necessary[1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of volatility, with short-term fluctuations expected to amplify due to the ongoing adjustments in long-term bond yields[1] - There is a cautionary note regarding potential profit-taking by institutions as yields approach the central bank's acceptable levels of 2.1% for 10-year bonds and 2.3% for 30-year bonds[1] - The overall sentiment suggests a long-term bullish outlook on bonds, with opportunities to buy on potential yield corrections[1]