股指早报 隔夜外围继续科技回落，大盘震荡整固 2026 年 2 月 5 日 股指期货早报 2026.2.5 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 1 月 ADP 就业人数录得 2.2 万人，低于预期 4.8 和 3.7 万人；美 1 月标普全球服务业 PMI 录得 52.7，高于预期和前值 52.5；美 1 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 53.8，高于预期 52.3，低于前 值 54.4。数据指向美劳动力市场的回落和制造业的回升。隔夜资产 走势来看，美元指数上涨，美债收益率短端回落，长端上行，黄金上 涨后回落最终收微涨，美股道指上涨，纳指和标普下跌，中国金龙指 数下跌，离岸人民币汇率贬值。外围美元指数上涨，黄金的大涨大跌， 美股科技延续科技下跌传统上涨的走势，光伏等概念上涨，这指向外 围避险情绪依旧存在，或可能继续升级，而对于科技，外围更多关注 重点在于业绩落地而不是长期叙事。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘上涨 0.85%，深成指上涨 0.21%，创业 板指下跌 0.4%，市场呈现震荡走势，涨幅基本上是尾盘收回，这指向 市场内部分歧较大，市场指数强于个股，热点集中在光伏电气设备。 板块上看，煤炭、建筑材料、房地产、交通运 ...

多晶硅周报：宏观脉冲，静待流动性修复 2026 年 2 月 2 日 多晶硅周报 报告要点： 联系人：贺崧泽 邮箱：hesz@cyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03143591 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 多晶硅周报 本周回顾： 本周宏观扰动大于基本面，市场升波显著，短期流动性受约束。首先 从基本面层面上游工业硅环节推进减产，多晶硅环节硅片环节虽然也 在着力推动减产，但是当前阶段减产仍不及预期，最终导致库存压力 持续增大。需求层面虽然抢出口在一定程度上提振了外需，但内需处 于季节性淡季且今年内需预期存在较为明显的同比下滑，最终使得下 游企业采购极为谨慎，进一步放大了该环境下上游的库存压力。因此 从结构上我们可以看见全行业利润都在持续的下滑，组件端虽然持续 挺涨，但是由于光伏主要原材料白银价格的快速上涨，使得原本就被 上游压缩利润的组件环节的利润被进一步削减。因此从基本面层面虽 然反内卷为市场情绪提供的一定支持，但是减产不及预期以及弱现实 仍然使得反内卷受到市场层面的质疑，使得价格支撑被一再削弱。 宏观层面受到美联储换帅影响，凯文·沃什当选使得近期较为一致的 市场预期出现了一定的分歧，及对美国缩表与否的分歧 ...

股指早报 隔夜外围波动大，A 股指数延续震荡 2026 年 1 月 30 日 股指期货早报 2026.1.30 报告摘要： 海外方面，隔夜外围资产大波动，昨晚 11 点美股、黄金大跌， 原油上涨，之后美股、黄金收复跌幅，最终美元指数收跌；美债收益 率短端长端小幅回落；黄金小幅收跌；原油收涨；美三大股指，道指 收涨，纳指和标普收跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨，美股波动率指 数小幅收涨，离岸人民币汇率小幅贬值。隔夜市场上的消息除了关于 伊朗之外并未有其他黑天鹅事件，而黄金和原油的背离又指向并不是 跟地缘政治事件冲击相关，从隔夜资产走势来看，像触发了资金交易 的信号一样。隔夜外围的高波动对今日 A 股有一定负面影响。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘收涨 0.16%，深成指下跌 0.3%，创业板 下跌 0.57%，市场呈现震荡走势。板块上电风扇行情轮动，早盘 AI， 午盘白酒，有色强分歧，指数也明显背离，大盘收红，科创 50 大跌， 市场资金尝试切换风格至传统蓝筹。板块上看，食品饮料、传媒、房 地产、非银金融、石油石化涨幅居前，电子、军工、电力设备、机械 设备跌幅居前，全市场 1801 只个股上涨，3562 只个股下跌。消息上 ...

A 股大金融有色上涨，热门题材下跌 2026 年 1 月 27 日 股指期货早报 2026.1.27 股指早报 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 11 月耐用品订单月率录得 5.3%，高于预期 3.7%和 前值-2.1%，数据指向美经济的韧性，进一步打压美联储降息预期。 从隔夜资产走势来看，美元指数继续下跌，日元兑美元继续上涨，这 主要因央行主动干预；离岸人民币汇率升值；美债收益率短端持平， 长端上涨；黄金长上影线收涨；美三大股指集体收涨，美股波动率小 幅上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌。临近 1 月底，美联储不降息预 期、美国政府再次关门可能、地缘政治动荡影响各资产走势，对于美 股更多还是受经济基本面影响。 国内盘面上看，周一大盘高开震荡微跌 0.09%，深成指下跌 0.85%，创业板指下跌 0.91%，市场呈现出分化走势。与之前不同的是 昨日是大金融等板块上涨拉动指数，但热门题材则回落，市场成交量 上升，走势有点滞涨。板块上看，有色、石油石化、煤炭、农林牧渔 涨幅居前，军工、汽车、社会服务、电子跌幅居前。全市场 1602 只 个股上涨，3767 只个股下跌。 整体上看，隔夜外围美股表现平稳，国内 A 股昨日大金融和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US December existing - home sales pending index monthly rate was - 9.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating a cooling of the US real - estate market. Trump's actions led to a partial reversal of US assets, but market concerns remain. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields fell, gold rose, and US stock indexes collectively increased, while the offshore RMB exchange rate slightly depreciated [1]. - In the domestic market, on Wednesday, the broader market showed a weak rebound in the index with continued stock differentiation. Financial weights stabilized the index, while AI hardware and semiconductor weights supported the market, and AI software and commercial aerospace dragged down market sentiment. The market sentiment was weak. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery had the highest gains, while banks, coal, and food and beverage had the highest losses. The 6G technology test has entered the second stage [2]. - Overall, although US dollar assets have partially recovered, market concerns still exist. The overnight recovery of overseas risk assets is positive for A - shares. The A - share market is in the spring market stage, with the market in a short - term shock situation and mainly showing sector rotation. During the annual report performance disclosure period, industries with industrial support, policy catalysis, and performance support should be selected, such as technology (AI power, energy storage, etc.) and cyclical industries (chemicals and non - ferrous metals) [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important News - Greenland situation: Trump reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland, withdrew tariff threats against 8 European countries, and stated no military action to seize the island. Sweden's largest pension fund sold most of its US Treasury bonds worth about $7.7 - 8.8 billion. The European Parliament indefinitely froze the review of the EU - US trade agreement, and a potential Greenland agreement for the US military to build bases was exposed [4]. - The US Supreme Court may reject Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook [5]. - Trump's Davos speech: He will vigorously develop nuclear energy, criticize wind turbines, state no military seizure of Greenland, believe the stock market decline is insignificant and will rise with good news, worry about the loyalty of the new Fed chair, claim that the Ukraine issue is close to an agreement, and that the medical health policy will reduce US drug costs by 90% or more [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the start of the second - stage 6G technology test [6]. - The minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages in 20 cities in Guangdong is set at no less than 30% [6]. - Huang Renxun is reported to plan to visit China in late January [7]. - The US Trade Representative hopes to have another potential trade negotiation with China, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [7]. - The Ministry of Finance is addressing the "involution - style" competition in government procurement and abnormal low - price issues [7]. - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments will continue the tax policy for innovative enterprises issuing depositary receipts in the domestic market [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Details of the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other data of上证50,沪深300,中证500, and中证1000 index futures contracts are provided, including different contract expiration months (February, March, June, and September 2026) [9]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Information on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, net open interest, and changes in long and short positions of the above - mentioned index futures contracts is presented [10]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Data on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading value, and other indicators of various major indexes such as万得全A,上证指数,深证成指,创业板指,上证50, and沪深300 are given, as well as data for different industries [32]. - **Impact of Market Styles on Indexes**: The impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the上证50,沪深300,中证500, and中证1000 indexes is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [33][34]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: Valuation and historical percentile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are presented, along with data on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases and their proportion in A - share trading value [35][38][41] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: Data on currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection of the central bank's open - market operations are provided [47][48]. - **Shibor Interest Rate Levels**: The levels of different - term Shibor interest rates are shown [47][49]

报告摘要： 海外方面，美总统特朗普对欧洲 8 国加征关税，因格林兰岛的问 题目前还不能确定特朗普后续采取的策略是否会退缩。隔夜市场继续 延续避险情绪升温，美元指数大跌，黄金大涨，美三大股指、美债包 括其他主要国家债券、日本、欧盟等都出现抛售，美股波动率指数大 涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率震荡维持稳定。外 围地缘政治不确定使得市场抛售美元资产。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘微跌 0.01%，深成指下跌 0.97%，创业 板指下跌 1.79%，市场呈现震荡走势。科技板块内部出现分化，多数 科技题材回调，相反化工、地产、煤炭、电力等价值上涨。周一公布 的去年四季度 GDP 录得 4.5%，相比前值 4.8%有所回落，市场资金开 始对稳增长政策有期待。申万一级板块上看，石油石化、建筑材料、 房地产、交通运输、建筑装饰涨幅居前，通信、军工、计算机、电力 设备涨幅居前。全市场 2231 只个股上涨，3102 只个股下跌。消息上 看，发改委表示将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实施 方案。昨日盘后主席表示要正确处理消费和投资、需求和供给的关系 让内需成为经济发展的主动力。政策层面对消费的支撑利 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas data indicates the resilience of US consumption and rising inflation, which supports the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Overnight US stocks' decline has a neutral - to - negative impact on the opening of A - shares today [1]. - Domestically, the A - share market showed a volatile and differentiated trend on Wednesday. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading signaled the management's intention to cool the market, suggesting a short - term adjustment need for the stock index. However, the upward trend remains unchanged, and a daily trading volume of three trillion yuan in the market may become the norm. Attention should be paid to commercial space and AI sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Information - **Fed**: Different Fed officials have different stances on interest rate cuts. Kashkari believes there is no need to cut interest rates in January, while Paulson thinks a small - scale cut later this year might be appropriate. The Beige Book shows that the overall economic activity in eight regions is growing at a slight to moderate pace [4]. - **Iran Situation**: Trump said that the "killing" in Iran has stopped and there is no execution plan. The US is withdrawing personnel from major bases in the Middle East, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has reached the highest level of combat readiness and increased its missile inventory [4]. - **Other News**: The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariffs. Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported chips not used in US AI, and the White House may expand the scope of chip import tariffs. The margin ratio for margin trading in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges has been raised from 80% to 100% [4][6]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Performance**: Different futures contracts of various indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have different closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change rates. For example, the SSE 50 index fell 0.67%, and its IH2601 contract fell 0.88% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and net positions of different futures contracts vary. For instance, the total trading volume of all futures was 961,401 lots, with an increase of 203,878 lots [12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Different indexes and sectors in the spot market showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82%. Sectors such as computers, communications, media, and electronics led the gains, while banks, real estate, non - bank financials, and transportation led the losses [2][33]. - **Market Style Impact**: Different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, financial, and stable) have different impacts on the performance of major indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [34][35]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The report presents the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [37][41][43]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, showing the situation of currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the level of different - term Shibor rates [49][50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the steel market followed the positive macro - sentiment, with an increase in hot metal production, a recovery in furnace material prices, and a general price increase in the black market. However, as the sentiment weakened, the near - term inventory started to accumulate, and pressure increased. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater pressure on hot - rolled coils in the near term than on rebar. The overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [7][16]. Summary by Directory 01 Fundamental Changes - After the holiday, following positive macro - sentiment, hot metal rebounded, furnace material prices recovered, the black market as a whole made up for lost ground, steel prices rose with costs, and the basis quickly turned negative, with intraday premiums reaching the warehouse - receipt registration spread. There is an expected increase in rebar warehouse - receipt volume. As sentiment weakened, near - term inventory accumulation started, increasing pressure [7]. - Rebar factory inventories showed a cumulative trend. After - holiday demand fell short of expectations, the apparent demand for wire rods declined rapidly, with a 17% month - on - month decrease. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand were weak. In January, the procurement forecast of construction enterprises surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 18% month - on - month, mainly due to fewer newly launched projects, seasonal shutdowns, and slower construction. Currently, infrastructure projects drive most of the demand, accounting for 90% of the Mysteel sample. Hot - rolled coils mainly accumulated in social inventories, and the inventory in Hangzhou remained high. Cold - rolled production increased by 2.8% month - on - month. The winter storage sentiment was dull this year, with an interest rate of 6 - 8 per thousand, and prices below 3000 yuan were considered attractive [10]. - Last week, the price of steel billets increased by 50 yuan, and the production profit of steel billets recovered. However, the price increase of finished products was weak, and the overall price difference with steel billets shrank. The price differences between hot - and cold - rolled products and between round bars and rebar remained stable [13]. 02 Outlook and Valuation - Assuming the supply of rebar and wire rods decreases by 12% and that of plates increases by 4.2% in the first 20 weeks, and the demand decreases by 7% and increases by 2% respectively, the inventory accumulation of rebar and wire rods is limited, while the inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils is relatively large. For rebar and wire rods, assuming the demand decreases by 2%, 7%, and 13% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are - 1.8%, - 6.8%, and - 12.7% to maintain seasonal inventory. For plates, assuming the demand increases by 0.4%, 3.8%, and 4.9% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are 0.8%, 4.2%, and 5.4% to maintain seasonal inventory. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater near - term pressure on hot - rolled coils than on rebar [16]. - Based on the previous assumptions for the five major steel products, the post - Spring Festival inventory peak is 15% higher than last year. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the demand ranges from +2.6% to - 4.3%, and the supply ranges from 2.9% to - 3.8%. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the year - on - year change in hot metal production ranges from 2.4% to - 1.8%. According to the neutral assumption, the hot metal production before the Spring Festival is almost the same as the current level, and the required reduction in production is limited. According to the current maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to recover in the future, but the demand needs to maintain a +2.4% level, which poses demand pressure [19]. - In terms of valuation, the on - disk blast furnace profit is at a relatively low level. The price difference between iron and scrap is 80, and the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap is not yet obvious. The on - disk pricing gives a flat - electricity profit of - 10, a valley - electricity profit of 126, and a blast furnace profit of 78, which is moderately high with limited downward space. The price difference of Turkish hot - rolled coils is 22 US dollars, and the export market is still open. The near - term export volume has declined for three consecutive weeks, which requires continuous attention. Overseas steel prices have been flat after the holiday. After the macro - sentiment fades and hot metal production recovers, the inventory starts to accumulate, and there is near - term real - market pressure. Currently, the production reduction plan is slow, and steel mill profits are under pressure. Steel mills still have a pre - holiday restocking demand for iron ore, and the overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Since mid-December 2025, the black commodity sector has shown a pattern where coking and steel mill profits on the futures market have been compressed. The prices of coking coal and iron ore have increased more, while finished steel products and coke have followed. The key factors are the expectation and realization of the bottoming - out and rebound of hot metal production, the strong performance of non - ferrous metals, and news of coal mine production capacity contraction. After the New Year's Day, the raw material supply - demand situation has improved, and coking coal inventory accumulation has slowed down, entering a state of "raw material valuation repair"[8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since the report on October 21st, the black sector has seen compressed coking and steel mill profits on the futures market. Before January, the black market was in a situation of weak steel demand, declining hot metal production, and a loose raw material supply - demand pattern, with continuous inventory accumulation of coking coal as the core trading point. After the New Year's Day, hot metal production rebounded as expected, and the supply - demand situation of raw materials improved, with coking coal inventory accumulation slowing down. The strong performance of non - ferrous metals and equity assets also led to an optimistic sentiment spill - over, driving the rebound of low - price varieties[8][9]. 3.2 Coking Coal Delivery - The delivery volume of jm2601 was the second - largest in 2025, second only to jm2505. More futures companies participated in the delivery, especially on the receiving side. The delivery parties were still mainly concentrated in Guotai Junan Futures, CITIC Futures, and Donghai Futures. The increasing activity of coking coal delivery participants is a positive development trend for the effectiveness of coking coal monthly spread and basis pricing, reflecting the essence of financial services for the real economy[11][12][13]. 3.3 Reality of Double Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Weekly Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic mines' production has recovered, while the growth of external supply has slowed down[16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The pattern of coking coal inventory accumulation continues, but the amplitude has slowed down, and the inventory is still concentrated in the mid - stream[21]. - **Coke Inventory**: Coke has turned to de - stocking, and the number of available days is at a neutral level[28]. - **Direct Demand for Double Coking since New Year's Day**: The negative growth of direct demand for double coking has narrowed[34]. 3.4 Coking Coal Inventory in January - **Import Profit Compression**: The import profit of coking coal has been compressed, and the future arrival of overseas coking coal is expected to decrease[43]. - **Expected Increase in Hot Metal**: Hot metal production is expected to continue to rise[55]. - **Steel Demand**: Steel demand is hard to be optimistic, but it should not be overly pessimistic. If domestic mine production decreases seasonally and imports decline, coking coal inventory accumulation may slow down[57][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The glass industry is currently experiencing a situation where supply has decreased significantly, demand is weak, and inventory shows differentiation. The pressure on inventory after the Spring Festival is relatively high, and more supply clearance is needed. For the纯碱 industry, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand continues, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply - side [28][38] Summary by Directory 01 Glass Supply - Recently, there have been many production cuts in the glass industry. Multiple glass production lines in different regions such as Central China, South China, and East China are scheduled for cold repair from the end of 2025 to early 2026, with a total reduction in daily melting capacity. As of December 5, 2025, the total daily melting capacity was 155,965 tons, a 3% decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with a reduction of 4,300 tons [4][7] Demand - There is an expected difference in demand. Downstream customers adopt a back - to - back purchasing model without stockpiling. Demand has declined, with fewer orders. The deep - processing order level is also affected [13] Inventory - Inventory shows differentiation. After the reduction in supply, manufacturers' inventory has shown differences. The inventory decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline next week. However, the upstream inventory reduction is mainly driven by speculative demand from the middle - stream. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory reduction situation [17] Month - to - Month and Basis - The increase in the futures market has strengthened basis trading and driven up upstream prices. The downstream in Shahe has started to participate, but the sustainability is limited. The month - to - month spread remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [24][26] Market Outlook - Based on a 6% decline in apparent demand, if the current supply remains unchanged, the inventory can be maintained at a reasonably high level. However, considering the relatively high middle - stream inventory, the pattern of squeezing profits will not change. There is an expected seasonal inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, and there is little opportunity for profit. If the profit squeeze continues, the post - festival pressure will not be too great. Theoretically, as long as the supply continues to decrease, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the second half of this year [29] 02纯碱 Supply - The production of soda ash has increased, mainly due to the increased production of the second - phase project in Alxa. Several enterprises and projects are expected to be put into production in the future, including Hubei Xindu Chemical, Hubei Jinjiang New Materials, etc., which will further increase the supply [32][35] Demand - The pattern of downstream customers squeezing profits in the soda ash industry remains unchanged [36] Market Situation - The pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the soda ash industry continues. The spot price remains low, and the month - to - month spread remains weak. Attention should also be paid to the production reduction situation in the future [38][39]