股指早报 大盘十三连阳，春季躁动 2026 年 1 月 7 日 股指期货早报 2026.1.7 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 12 月标普全球服务业 PMI 录得 52.5，低于预期和 前值 52.9，数据指向美经济的边际回落。从隔夜市场走势来看，与前 一交易日有所变化，美元指数上涨，美债收益率短端长端均有所回升， 原油回落，但美股、黄金和铜等有色类大宗商品上涨，纳斯达克中国 金龙指数微跌，美股波动率指数小幅上涨，离岸人民币汇率小幅升值。 隔夜市场不再延续降息逻辑，但风险和滞涨概念延续。另外 1 月 6 日 美国最高法院宣布，将在本周五就关税问题作出裁决。关注美关税方 面情况。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘高开高走上涨 1.5%，深成指上涨 1.4%， 创业板指上涨 0.75%，市场延续大反弹走势。券商上涨带动情绪，题 材则保持活跃。央行工作会议的召开意味降息降准的临近，这也是金 融板块大涨的主因。板块上看，有色、非银金融、化工、军工、石油 石化涨幅居前，仅通信小幅下跌。全市场 4101 只个股上涨，1218 只 个股下跌。消息上看，九部门发文实施绿色消费推进行动。 整体上看，隔夜外围基本延续美股和商品齐涨的走势，地缘 ...

股指早报 大盘八连阳 2025 年 12 月 29 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.29 报告摘要： 海外方面，圣诞假期后外围金融市场开市，上周五美元指数收涨， 美债收益率短端和长端均回落，黄金继续上涨，美三大股指集体小幅 收跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨，离岸人民币汇率震荡小幅贬值， 目前人民币汇率已经在 7，短期需要时间震荡消化，美股也在圣诞行 情后迎来震荡，短期需要密切关注外围情况对 A 股的影响。 国内盘面上看，上周五大盘低开震荡上涨 0.1%，深成指上涨 0.54%，创业板指上涨 0.14%，市场呈现震荡分化走势。科技和部分消 费拖累指数，题材保持活跃，最为明显的就是商业航天，而其他题材 则处于轮动，盘面结构性行情明显。板块上看，有色、电力、钢铁、 军工涨幅居前，电子、轻工制造、通信、食品饮料跌幅居前。全市场 1865 只个股上涨，3406 只个股下跌。消息上看，管理层表示明年财 政支持延续，对新能源、科技等补贴相关行业形成利好。另外中国 ETF 突破 6 万亿规模。 整体上看，外围美股圣诞节后开盘，美股的下跌一定程度对于今 日 A 股开盘形成压制。而目前大盘已经八连阳且没出现加速，同时市 场放量， ...

股指早报 大盘临近 4000 点 2025 年 12 月 26 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.26 报告摘要： 海外方面，圣诞假期，外围金融市场休市。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡上涨 0.47%，深成指上涨 0.33%，创业板指上涨 0.3%，市场延续稳步反弹走势。题材商业航天、 人形机器人等保持活跃，券商板块则基本与指数节奏保持一致。市场 指数很稳，但很大风险偏好回升也说不上，基本还是处于结构性行情 当中。板块上看，军工、轻工制造、机械设备、汽车涨幅居前，有色、 商贸零售、煤炭、通信跌幅居前。全市场 3768 只个股上涨，1469 只 个股下跌。消息上看，商务部回应 TikTok、美对华半导体产品加征 301 关税。以后中美科技博弈边谈边打的状况或成常态。 整体上看，近期人民币的升值对于市场信心起到提振，而 A 股也 走出七连阳。市场处于指数稳步上升中的结构性行情，资金布局春季 行情明显。目前指数已经离 4000 点不远，指数可能在冲击 4000 点整 数关口后才会有大波动。 创元研究 股指研究员：刘钇含 邮箱：liuyh@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z0015686 请务必阅读正文后的 ...

A 股指数震荡中枢上移，分歧后看好后续行情 2025 年 12 月 25 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.25 报告摘要： 海外方面，美上周初请失业金人数录得 21.4 万人，低于预期和 前值 22.4；隔夜圣诞节假期间，外围资产上涨，美三大股指集体收 涨，美债 2 年和 10 年期收涨，黄金震荡小幅收跌，纳斯达克金龙指 数小幅收跌，离岸人民币汇率继续升值。隔夜外围走势对 A 股中性偏 多。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘平开震荡上涨 0.53%，深成指上涨 0.88%，创业板指上涨 0.77%，市场呈现指数与个股一起反弹的走势。 前日下跌的商业航天昨日开盘就迎来上涨，午后带动市场的是券商和 算力的硬件。整体市场处于指数表现稳当，当氛围并未完全起来的状 况。板块上看，军工、电子、建筑材料、轻工制造涨幅居前，农林牧 渔、煤炭、食品饮料、银行下跌。全市场 4124 只个股上涨，1132 只 个股下跌。消息上看，美方拟自 2027 年起对华半导体产业征关税。 这也是美国对华科技竞争策略的一部分，后续国产替代的进程或加 快。 整体上看，外围进入圣诞假期，隔夜走势对 A 股中性偏多。国内 A 股步入年底，资金布局明年的行情， ...

股指早报 外围圣诞节行情持续，A 股指数震荡收涨 2025 年 12 月 24 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.24 报告摘要： 海外方面，美第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值为 4.3%，高于预 期 3.3%和前值 3.8%；三季度实际个人消费支出季率录得 3.5%，高于 预期 2.7%和前值 2.5%；三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值为 2.9%，符合预期但高于前值 2.6%；美 10 月耐用品订单月率录得-2.2%， 低于预期-1.5%和前值 0.7%；美 12 月谘商会消费者信心指数为 89.1， 低于预期 91 和前值 92.9。美国三季度经济数据指向美经济保持韧 性，但是高频数据却显示美经济的走弱。目前市场对于美联储 1 月维 持利率不变的概率上升至 86.7%，但整体明年降息次数不变。隔夜资 产方面则延续圣诞行情走势，美三大股指上涨，黄金上涨，美债短端 下跌，长端震荡，美 VIX 指数大幅回落，纳斯达克中国金龙指数小幅 下跌，离岸人民币汇率继续升值。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘上涨 0.07%，深成指上涨 0.27%，创业 板指上涨 0.41%，市场呈现震荡走势。几大指数虽然收红，但个股情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent Christmas - approaching rally in overseas US stocks has a positive impact on A - shares. With the implementation of external negatives such as the Japanese interest rate hike, there are signs of incremental capital inflow into A - shares at the end of the year, with technology as the main line and consumption remaining active. The market continues to be optimistic about the cross - year market [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Information - Fed Governor Milan: The necessity of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has diminished. If no one takes over the governor position by January 31 next year, he may continue to serve [5]. - According to CNBC, people familiar with the matter revealed that US President Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman in the first week of January next year [5]. - US media reported that Russia has begun to evacuate the families of its diplomats in Venezuela [6]. - The EU will extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months until July 31, 2026 [6]. - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan, and Ding Xuexiang attended [6]. - The central bank issued a notice on the arrangements for implementing a one - time credit repair policy [7]. - Five major futures exchanges announced the reduction and exemption of relevant fees such as delivery fees in 2026 [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and trading limits of relevant contracts for the silver futures variety [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce reported that Wingtech Technology and Nexperia Netherlands held their first - round consultations last week, explaining and clarifying issues of concern and agreeing to continue communication [9]. - All flights on 46 China - Japan routes will be cancelled in the next two weeks [10]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% on Monday. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.95%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.20%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.07%. Futures contracts of various indices also showed different degrees of increase [2][12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of futures was 379,626 lots, a decrease of 187,708 lots; the total trading value was 520.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 247.1 billion yuan; the total open interest decreased by 7,492 lots [13]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: The total trading value of the spot market was 6,319 billion yuan, and the overall market showed an upward trend. Among the sectors, communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, commercial and retail, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while media, banking, light industry manufacturing, and beauty care led the losses [2][37]. - **Influence of Market Styles**: For different indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the cyclical, growth, and other styles have different degrees of influence on their daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns [38][39]. - **Valuation**: The current valuations and historical quantile positions of important indices and Shenwan sectors are presented [40][43]. - **Other Indicators**: Market indicators such as the average daily trading volume on Sundays, average daily turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, and changes in index trading value are also shown [46]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The content shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the summary part [52].

日央行大概率加息，A 股内部预期产生分歧 2025 年 12 月 19 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.19 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 11 月未季调 CPI 年率录得 2.7%，低于预期 3.1%； 上周初请失业金人数录得 22.4 万人；低于预期 22.5 和前值 23.7 万 人。美通胀数据支持美联储鸽派的降息，美 1 月降息预期小幅上升。 隔夜资产走势来看，美元指数先跌后涨最终收涨，美债收益率短端和 长端小幅回落，黄金上涨后下跌最终收跌，美三大股指均大震荡走势 阴线收涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，离岸人民币汇率升值。隔夜 外围表现中性。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡上涨 0.16%，深成指下跌 1.29%，创业板指下跌 2.17%，市场呈现震荡分化走势。大盘主要是银 行和两桶油贡献，板块间呈现轮动，商业航天和消费走强，但算力硬 件又走弱，主要受外围拖累。板块上看，银行、煤炭、石油石化、军 工、轻工制造涨幅居前，电力设备、通信、电子、汽车跌幅居前。全 市场 2843 只个股上涨，2413 只个股下跌。消息上看，商务部办公厅、 财政部办公厅印发《关于做好消费新业态新模式新场景试点有关工作 的通知》。 ...

股指早报 美非农低于预期，A 股二次探底 2025 年 12 月 17 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.17 报告摘要： 股指研究员：刘钇含 邮箱：liuyh@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z0015686 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 1 海外方面，美 10 月季调非农就业人口录得-10.5 万人，大幅低 于前值 10.8；11 月季调非农就业人口录得 6.4 万人，高于预期 5 万 人；11 月失业率录得 4.6%，高于预期 4.4%；美国 10 月零售销售月 率录得零增长，不及预期 0.1%，前值由 0.2%下修为 0.1%。数据指向 美劳动力市场和消费的走弱。周二公布的数据使得市场对于美联储 1 月的降息概率提高，但并未改变 1 月不降息的整体预期。从隔夜市场 走势来看，市场对于周二重视的数据反映不够明显，在数据公布前市 场预期就业是小幅走弱，并且该预期已经在资产走势中反映，但从隔 夜市场走势来看，美元指数下跌之后反弹最终收跌；美债收益率短端 长端均回落；黄金上涨后回落，最终收跌；而美股中道指和标普收跌， 而代表科技的纳指收涨，美股的波动率却延续上涨。虽然经济数据使 得市场降息预期小幅抬高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and unexpected announcement of short - bond purchases have ignited the enthusiasm for long - liquidity in the overseas market, which is beneficial to risk assets [2]. - The domestic A - share market showed certain resilience yesterday, and in the short term, it will be repaired to some extent due to the overnight overseas influence. The market will maintain a volatile tone in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to layout for the spring market next year during the volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - The Fed's December interest rate decision: It will cut interest rates by 25 basis points with 3 dissenting votes, buy $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, and the median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut in each of the next two years. Powell said that the economy's development could be observed, no one expected an interest rate hike, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The bond - buying scale will remain high in the coming months [4]. - Trump criticized Powell after the Fed's interest rate cut, saying the cut was too small and could be doubled, and the rate should be the lowest globally [4]. - Trump stated that the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela, claiming the move was legal [5]. - Meta is fully shifting to a closed - source model and integrating third - party models such as Alibaba's Qwen during training [5]. - The Ministry of Finance announced that the special treasury bonds due in 2025 will be rolled over at the same amount without increasing the fiscal deficit [6]. - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2025 [7]. - Foreign media reported that China is considering restricting access to NVIDIA's H200 chips, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily limit range of the silver futures AG2602 contract to 15%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 16%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 17% from the close of trading on December 12, 2025 [8]. - The China Coast Guard vessel formation patrolled in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands on December 10 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index showed various closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change ratios, with different basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates. The contract delivery dates and remaining times also vary [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly net positions, and net position changes of different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are presented. The total trading volume, trading value, open interest, and related changes of all contracts are also provided [12]. - **Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads of different indices, including the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, which reflect the historical data trends of these indicators [13][18][22] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and other data of various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are presented. The data of different industries are also included, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and other sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions is analyzed [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations of important indices and Shenwan industries, as well as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading value [39][42][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Charts**: There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which reflect the historical data trends of these liquidity - related indicators [52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are digesting the Fed's hawkish rate - cut expectations, which have put some pressure on US Treasuries and US stocks. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. [2][4] - Although the domestic A - shares are supported by the positive news of the entry of medium - and long - term funds such as insurance funds, they still face the year - end settlement effect in the short term, with limited capital inflows. And due to the weakness of the Hong Kong stock market, the performance of A - shares is limited. [4] - The A - share market has filled the upper gap on the 21st. Given the signs of liquidity shortage, the stock index may retrace to around the 20 - week moving average of 3847 in the short term, and the market is in a consolidating phase to wait for opportunities. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Important News - Trump mentioned the possibility of reducing tariffs on some over - priced goods and that an immediate rate cut would be a "litmus test" for choosing a new Fed chairman. He also started the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman position this week, with Hassett leading. There was also talk about the possibility of Hassett having a shortened term. [6] - Hassett believes the Fed has sufficient room for significant rate cuts and will make interest - rate decisions based on his judgment. [7] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upside risk of inflation, and the market expects the rate - cut cycle may have ended. [7] - Zelensky refused to "cede territory", will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th, and for the first time showed willingness to hold elections. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. [7] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development respectively. [7] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to issues such as delays in China's rare - earth exports to Japan and the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. [8][9] - Moore Threads is about to release a new generation of GPU architecture. [10] - A long - awaited polysilicon production - capacity integration and acquisition platform in the industry has been officially established. [10] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: All major stock - index futures contracts showed declines. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures contracts IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 fell by 0.65%, 0.64%, 0.70%, and 0.67% respectively. [12] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures decreased by 21,031 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,493 lots. [13] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The overall market showed a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.61%. The trading volume of the market decreased, and most stocks fell. [3][35] - **Industry Performance**: Communication, electronics, commerce and retail, and military industry sectors rose, while non - ferrous metals, steel, real estate, coal, and construction decoration sectors led the decline. [3] - **Influence of Market Styles on Indexes**: Different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) had different impacts on major indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the cyclical style had a negative daily contribution to the SSE 50 index, while the growth style had a positive daily contribution. [36][37] - **Valuation and Related Indicators**: The report presented the current valuations, historical quantiles, trading volumes, and turnovers of major indexes and industries, providing a reference for market evaluation. [39][43] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest - rate levels, which are important indicators for observing market liquidity. [51]