东方证券化工周报：2024年8月第2周

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is still in a bottoming phase with few sub-industries showing an upward trend in fundamentals. High oil prices are maintained, suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks such as the "three barrels of oil" and the long-term dividend potential of leading chemical companies. In terms of defensive allocation, attention is recommended towards the agricultural supply chain, which is more resilient during recession cycles. Historical data shows that food prices tend to decline less than oil prices during recession periods due to the inelastic demand for food. The increasing global instability has heightened the importance of food security, making the agricultural input supply chain resilient [5][11]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of August 9, Brent oil prices increased by 3.7% to $79.66 per barrel. Initial concerns about a U.S. economic recession led to a drop in oil prices, but subsequent tensions in the Middle East, a decrease in U.S. commercial oil inventories, and stronger-than-expected U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI contributed to the price increase. As of August 2, U.S. commercial oil inventories stood at 429.3 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 3.7 million barrels [12][11]. Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases for the week were Vitamin A (up 27.3%), Niacinamide (up 18.8%), and Natural Gas (up 9.1%). The top three price decreases were Liquid Chlorine (down 817.6%), Cotton (down 6.4%), and Trichloroethylene (down 5.3%). For the month, the top three price increases were Vitamin A (up 138.6%), Vitamin E (up 76.5%), and Niacinamide (up 25.0%). The top three price decreases were Liquid Chlorine (down 206.1%), Acetone (down 13.1%), and Acrylonitrile (down 11.3%) [3][13][15]. Price Spread Changes - The top three price spread increases for the week were for the Maleic Anhydride (n-Butane) spread (up 50.3%), the Butyl Acrylate spread (up 50.0%), and the Aniline spread (up 29.5%). The top three price spread decreases were for the Maleic Anhydride BDO spread (down 680.7%), R410A spread (down 66.7%), and PTA (down 63.1%). For the month, the top three price spread increases were for Styrene (up 199.4%), MTO spread (up 67.3%), and Formic Acid spread (up 58.9%) [4][17]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Rongsheng Petrochemical: A leading private refining enterprise with significant upward performance potential due to a joint investment project with Saudi Aramco [5][11]. - Huamao Technology: A leading special polyether company that has re-entered a growth phase after addressing macro demand pressures [5][11]. - Jinhui Industrial: A leading company in maltol and sucralose, with products expected to see marginal changes from a low point in the cycle [5][11]. - Salt Lake Potash: A leading domestic potash fertilizer company [5][11].