软饮料行业深度报告（系列三）：如何理解当前包装水行业竞争格局？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the beverage industry, particularly focusing on bottled water companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of Nongfu Spring's new product "Green Bottle Water" in 2024 has raised concerns about a potential shift in the competitive landscape of the bottled water industry. However, historical analysis suggests that such changes are cyclical, and leading brands can navigate through these cycles to achieve long-term growth [2][3]. - The report identifies two common patterns in the evolution of the bottled water competition over the past 20 years: 1) cyclical changes driven by macro demand, category cycles, cost cycles, and strategies of leading brands; 2) regardless of competition cycles, the industry concentration tends to increase, with Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage consistently maintaining their positions through multiple cycles [2][3]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The report reviews four significant changes in the bottled water competitive landscape from 2005 to 2021, highlighting that the industry concentration (CR5) has consistently increased, with Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage successfully navigating through various competitive phases [10][13][22]. - From 2005 to 2009, the industry saw rapid expansion with CR5 rising from 46.9% to 61.5%, driven by increased penetration and moderate competition [13]. - Between 2010 and 2011, the shift from 1 yuan to 2 yuan water led to a further increase in CR5 to over 70%, with Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage gaining market share [16]. - The period from 2012 to 2015 was marked by intensified competition, yet CR5 remained stable at around 70%, with both leading brands maintaining their market positions [19][25]. - From 2016 to 2021, the industry experienced a slowdown in competition, with CR5 increasing to 80%, and profitability improving as the market matured [22][24]. Current Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes that the current competition is characterized by a focus on price promotions, which are seen as a superficial aspect of a deeper trend towards quality-price ratio consumption and diversification of bottled water needs [2][3]. - Nongfu Spring's strategy includes expanding into lower-tier markets and developing new products, which is expected to lead to a new phase of competitive dynamics [2][3]. - The report suggests that the competitive intensity will likely remain manageable, as both Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage are pursuing different strategic directions, which may help stabilize the market [71]. Key Companies - Nongfu Spring is highlighted for its strong product development capabilities and brand strength, with the introduction of "Green Bottle Water" expected to enhance its market share and channel penetration [3][77]. - China Resources Beverage is noted for its solid market presence in southern China and its ongoing investments in brand marketing and operational efficiency, which are anticipated to improve profitability [3].