2024年宏观经济中期展望报告：修复式增长框架下的温和再通胀

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the second half of 2024 is projected to be around 5%, requiring a quarterly annualized growth rate of approximately 5.6% to meet the annual target[2][21]. - Inflation is expected to experience a mild recovery, with CPI growth continuing to rise while PPI remains negative[2][12]. Real Estate Market Adjustment - The adjustment in the real estate cycle is linked to a shift from core to non-core assets, with significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the housing market[3][13]. - The transition of real estate from a core asset to a non-core asset is still ongoing, impacting overall economic growth[3][13]. Asset Allocation Insights - A-share markets are anticipated to present structural opportunities, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[5][13]. - The short-term outlook for Chinese bonds should not underestimate the central bank's resolve, while the long-term outlook will depend on fundamental economic conditions[5][13]. - Commodity prices, particularly the copper-gold ratio, are expected to remain volatile, with both metals yet to fully realize their price increases[5][13]. Fiscal Policy and Government Revenue - Fiscal revenue has faced pressure, with general public budget revenue declining by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, falling short of the budgeted growth rate of 3.3%[23][24]. - The government may need to consider additional budget issuance or new bonds if revenue continues to lag, as fiscal spending must increase to stabilize domestic demand[24][26].