策略定期研究：选择方向的窗口期

Market Insights - The market is currently in a directional selection window, with the overall A-share market down by 1.7% this week, indicating a need for directional choices amidst shrinking market and industry volume indicators [1][9] - Attention is drawn to two trading clues: overseas focus on "hard landing" recession and "soft landing" easing, while domestically, the emphasis is on the effects of consumption and equipment replacement policies [1][9] Market Observation - Market volume has declined again, with industry rotation intensity exceeding warning levels, suggesting potential market differentiation [2][11] - The stock-bond yield spread has risen to 2.0%, surpassing the +2 standard deviation level, indicating significant value in A-share assets compared to bonds [11] - Market sentiment has decreased, with a 17.4% drop in the five-dimensional market sentiment index, reflecting an overall decline in A-share sentiment [13] - The food and beverage, pharmaceutical, and real estate sectors have a high proportion of bullish stocks, while agriculture, communication, and retail sectors may present alpha opportunities [17] Midstream Perspective - Industries such as automotive, photovoltaic, and liquor are experiencing improved sentiment, with specific policies like vehicle replacement showing positive effects [2][28] - The automotive sector has seen a significant increase in vehicle replacement subsidy applications, indicating a boost in consumer activity [28] Industry Allocation - The strategy of "holding the shield and counterattacking" is maintained, focusing on high certainty and high payout combinations to navigate market volatility [2][37] - Attention is given to undervalued, high-dividend liquor stocks, as well as resilient banking core assets amidst market fluctuations [37] - The chemical and non-ferrous sectors are highlighted for their long-term improvement potential under energy-saving and emission reduction expectations [37]