半导体行业月报：半导体出口管制或再加严，关注国产替代方向

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has shown strong performance in July 2024, with a 5.30% increase in the domestic semiconductor sector, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.57% [2][11]. - Global semiconductor sales continued to grow year-on-year, with a 18.3% increase in June 2024, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [3][18]. - The demand for consumer electronics is gradually recovering, with significant growth expected in AI smartphones and AI PCs [3][18]. - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upward cycle, driven by AI as a key growth driver [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance in July 2024 - The semiconductor industry (CITIC) rose by 5.30% in July, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [2][11]. - The integrated circuit sector increased by 3.99%, discrete devices by 10.46%, semiconductor materials by 3.88%, and semiconductor equipment by 9.25% [11]. 2. Global Semiconductor Sales Growth - In June 2024, global semiconductor sales reached approximately $50 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3% and a month-on-month increase of 1.7% [18]. - The sales growth was driven by regions such as the Americas (42.8% growth) and China (21.6% growth), while Japan and Europe experienced declines [18][20]. 3. Demand Recovery and AI Influence - Consumer demand is gradually recovering, with global smartphone shipments in Q2 2024 increasing by 12% year-on-year [3]. - The AI smartphone market is expected to grow rapidly, with significant contributions from AI PCs as well [3][18]. 4. Inventory and Capacity Utilization - Some global chip manufacturers reported an increase in inventory levels, while domestic manufacturers saw a decrease in inventory levels [3]. - Wafer fab capacity utilization rates are expected to continue improving in the second half of 2024 [3]. 5. Price Trends in Memory Products - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash products showed divergence in July 2024, but the overall trend remains upward [3][18]. 6. Semiconductor Equipment Sales - Global semiconductor equipment sales in Q1 2024 decreased by 2% year-on-year, while China's semiconductor equipment sales surged by 113% [3][18]. - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2024 and 17% in 2025 [3]. 7. Export Controls and Domestic Substitution - Japan has tightened export controls on semiconductor-related goods, accelerating the process of domestic substitution in China [4]. - Companies such as SMIC, Changdian Technology, and others are expected to benefit from this trend [4].