协鑫科技控股：不止于穿越周期，颗粒硅+出海长逻辑兑现

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 1.62 based on a 1.0x PB valuation for 2024E [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has successfully navigated multiple cycles in the photovoltaic industry, leveraging its first-principles approach and technological advancements in granular silicon, silane gas, and perovskite technology to create new growth momentum. It is expected that the total production capacity of granular silicon will reach 480,000 tons by 2024 [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Technological Foundation and Market Position - The company has established a strong technological foundation that allows it to withstand various market cycles, achieving stable revenue and cash flow [19]. - The company’s revenue has shown steady growth, with reported revenues of 19.7 billion, 35.9 billion, and 33.7 billion CNY for 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.7%, 82.4%, and a decline of 6.2% [19][20]. 2. Granular Silicon Technology - Granular silicon production is based on a low-energy consumption process, positioning the company on the left side of the industry cash cost curve. The production process significantly reduces energy costs, with energy consumption reaching as low as 13.8 kWh/kg [22][23]. - The company’s granular silicon technology has high barriers to entry, relying on precise control of gas flow rates, temperatures, and doping ratios to optimize production and costs [32][33]. 3. Market Dynamics and Future Growth - The report anticipates a recovery in silicon prices in Q4 2024, driven by traditional seasonal demand and inventory depletion, with granular silicon expected to become the mainstream product due to its superior minority carrier lifetime and cost advantages [3][4]. - The company is also exploring international markets, with plans to release significant production capacity in the UAE by 2025/2026, which is expected to yield higher profit margins compared to domestic operations [4]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.96 billion, 17.90 billion, and 24.84 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to recover to 5.83 billion and 4.26 billion CNY in 2025 and 2026 [4].