GS UK Today： Encore： Sell Harbour Energy | Copper | UK Inflation & Labour Market Preview

Harbour Energy Analysis - Investment Rating: Sell rating maintained for Harbour Energy due to its high exposure to European spot gas prices, negatively impacting its earnings profile in 2025-26E [5] - Core Thesis: Harbour Energy offers the lowest cash return to shareholders at 6.9% in 2024/25E compared to the EU E&P sector average of 10.9%/12.7% [2] - Valuation: The company trades in line with its peers in the EU E&P sector on 2025E EV/DACF, but better combinations of shareholder return, growth, and valuation are found elsewhere in the sector [3] Copper Industry Update - Escondida Mine Labor Negotiations: Sindicato No.1 (2.4k operators) at Escondida, the largest single mine union in Chile, has not agreed to initial terms presented by BHP, with government mediation underway [6] - Potential Cost Impact: Negotiating an improvement on the existing contract could cost approximately $110mn in cash bonuses, adding USc8/lb to 2H'24e Escondida unit costs [6] Beverages Industry Trends - Soft Drinks Performance: Nielsen Carbonates data for the 4 weeks to 14 July shows flat sales development yoy in Western Europe, with the UK down 10.8%, France -8.6%, and Spain -6.9% [6] - Promotional Activity: Promotional activity ramped up across all tracked markets, with Germany showing +1.9% volume growth likely due to the UEFA Eurocup [6] UK Macroeconomic Outlook - Inflation Forecast: July inflation is expected to see services inflation decelerate to 5.48%, down from 5.74% in June, with core inflation decelerating to 3.38% [8] - Labour Market: The June labour market report is expected to show the 3m average unemployment rate edge up to 4.5%, above the BoE's forecast of 4.4% [8] Global Economics Insights - *Neutral Real Rate (r)**: The neutral real rate is an important anchor for monetary policy and financial markets, with market-based estimates suggesting high returns from macroeconomic stabilization [8] - China PBOC Policy: The PBOC maintained an easing bias in its 2Q monetary policy report, with a forecast for a 25bp RRR cut in 3Q and a 10bp policy rate cut in 4Q [8] FX Market Dynamics - Yen Carry Trade Unwind: The CFTC weekly positioning report suggests net shorts amongst non-commercial investors have fallen to just $1bn from a peak net short of nearly $15bn, indicating c.90% of the carry trade unwind is done [8]