煤炭行业周报：电厂日耗或季节性见顶，焦炭三轮提降迅速落地

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating [3] Core Insights - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in power plants may have peaked seasonally, while the rapid implementation of three rounds of price reductions for coke has impacted coal prices [1][2] - Short-term outlook suggests that coal prices may face downward pressure due to reduced purchasing activity from power plants, despite stable overall demand [1][2] - Long-term projections for 2024 indicate a return to a tight balance in supply and demand for thermal coal, with potential for price increases [1][2] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - In the thermal coal sector, the pithead price remains stable with a mining operation rate of 92.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.3 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points [1] - Port prices are trending weakly, with daily coal shipments averaging 1.64 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.87% [1] - National daily coal consumption for power plants is reported at 2.579 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7.53% but a year-on-year increase of 10.26% [1] - The report suggests that the coal price may still have support due to high demand and weather conditions affecting mining operations [1] Coking Coal Sector - Coking coal mining operation rate stands at 89.8%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.41 percentage points [2] - Coking coal inventory totals 23.72 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.44% [2] - The steel sector shows a high furnace operation rate of 80.21%, with daily pig iron production at 2.32 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.08% [2] - The report highlights that weak demand and delayed purchases are pressuring coking coal prices, with three rounds of price reductions for coke impacting the market [2] Recommendations - In the thermal coal sector, companies with stable long-term contracts and strong cash flow such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy are recommended [2] - For companies with high earnings elasticity due to increasing electricity demand, Yanzhou Coal Mining and Guanghui Energy are suggested [2] - In the coking coal sector, companies with low valuations and high dividends such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Jizhong Energy are recommended [2]