非银金融行业专题报告：从固收角度看保险板块投资机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector is focusing on bond issuance primarily for capital replenishment, with a preference for debt over equity financing due to regulatory pressures and the complexity of equity issuance [3][15] - Current insurance companies have sufficient funding sources on the liability side, with declining costs, while facing significant investment pressures, leading to a preference for long-term interest rate bonds [4][30] - The main risks for insurance companies include interest spread losses, solvency issues, and stringent regulations [5][43] - The introduction of perpetual bonds is expected to expand the bond issuance landscape, with a peak issuance period anticipated from late 2024 to 2025 [6][50] Summary by Sections 1. Historical and Current Status of Insurance Bonds - Insurance companies have historically issued bonds at lower amounts, with significant issuance years correlating with stricter solvency regulations [9] - The total bond issuance reached approximately 112.17 billion in 2023, with a notable concentration in years of regulatory tightening [9] - The current bond structure includes "5+5" capital replenishment bonds and "5+N" perpetual bonds, with a total of 346 billion in outstanding bonds as of July 2024 [9][10] 2. Overview of Current Insurance Companies' Fundamentals - The insurance sector has seen a stable growth in asset scale, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.85% for property insurance over the past seven years [24] - The liability costs for life insurance companies have been optimized, with a focus on reducing interest spread risks due to regulatory guidance [28] 3. Potential Risk Points for Current Insurance Companies - Interest spread risks have increased significantly since 2021, with the average interest spread dropping to 1.73%, below the historical average of 2.23% [38] - Small and medium-sized insurance companies face solvency pressures, with several failing to meet regulatory solvency standards [40] - The regulatory environment has tightened, with increased penalties for non-compliance, impacting the operational space for smaller firms [43] 4. Future Prospects for Insurance Bonds - The issuance of new perpetual bonds is expected to continue, with eight entities having issued ten perpetual bonds totaling 54.27 billion [50] - The "new issuance to replace old" model is anticipated to remain a fundamental strategy for insurance bonds, driven by solvency requirements [51] - The introduction of new bond types and issuers is seen as a driving force for the expansion of the insurance bond market [54]