Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price adjusted from HKD 26.00 to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 50.9% from the current price of HKD 15.90 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in average transaction value has temporarily disrupted revenue growth, but the trend of profit margin improvement remains intact due to supply chain optimization [1]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its factory store network and optimizing its product structure, aiming to open 1,000 new factory stores throughout the year [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 is projected to grow by 9% year-on-year to RMB 7.1 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 330 million, reflecting a 55% increase [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year for 2024, totaling RMB 14.6 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 740 million, both down by 7% from previous forecasts due to consumer preference for alternative products affecting average transaction value [1]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are RMB 14,592 million, down 7% from previous estimates [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 739 million, also a 7% decrease from prior predictions [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 25.61% in 2024E, up 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [3]. - For 2025E and 2026E, revenues are projected at RMB 16.6 billion and RMB 18.6 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 1.2 billion and RMB 1.6 billion [1][3].
途虎-W：客单价下降短期扰动收入增长，供应链优化下利润率提升趋势不变