Loctek(300729) 申万宏源·2024-08-12 14:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13X/9X/7X for 2024-2026 based on operating profit forecasts of 347/487/632 million yuan [4][7] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 2,427 million yuan, up 44.6% YoY, and net profit of 160 million yuan, down 63.9% YoY [4] - Overseas warehouse business showed strong growth, with H1 revenue of 851 million yuan, up 130% YoY, and Q2 gross margin improving to 15.6%, up 2.6 percentage points QoQ [4] - Brand overseas revenue reached 915 million yuan in H1, up 20% YoY, with independent stations contributing 369 million yuan, up 21% YoY, and accounting for 40.3% of total brand overseas revenue [5] - Domestic sales are still in the marketing stage, with revenue declining in H1, but the company expects to break even in 2024 [5] - The report is optimistic about a rebound in net profit margin in H2 2024, driven by falling shipping costs and the peak season for e-commerce [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 5,497 million yuan in 2024E to 8,648 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.8% [6] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 347 million yuan in 2024E to 632 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 29.9% [6] - Gross margin is expected to recover to 36.0% by 2026, up from 31.3% in H1 2024 [6] - ROE is projected to improve from 5.2% in H1 2024 to 15.3% by 2026 [6] Market Data - The company's stock price closed at 13.95 yuan on August 12, 2024, with a P/B ratio of 1.4 and a dividend yield of 2.87% [2] - The company's market capitalization is 4,107 million yuan, with a total of 313 million shares outstanding, of which 294 million are A-shares [3]