休闲零食行业深度报告：解码小零食的大单品之路——从奥利奥说起

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The snack industry is characterized by a "large industry, small companies" structure, with a market size of 471.8 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a 5-year CAGR of 1.2% and a 10-year CAGR of 2.9% [10] - Flavored snacks account for 57% of the market, with a 5-year CAGR of 2% and a 10-year CAGR of 3% [10] - The industry is highly fragmented, with a CR5 of 16.5% in China, significantly lower than Japan (28.8%) and the US (48.5%) [11] - Chinese snack brands are relatively small, with leading products like ChaCha sunflower seeds generating 4.27 billion yuan in revenue, while global brands like Oreo achieve 26.96 billion yuan [12][13] Key Discussions Necessity of Snack Monoliths - Channel and inventory management: Long-tail snack categories face challenges in demand forecasting and inventory turnover, leading to high inventory levels and low turnover rates [15][16] - Improving cost efficiency: Smaller categories often face higher channel fees and lower efficiency ratios, while larger monoliths can negotiate better terms and achieve higher ROI [19][20] - Brand building: Smaller snack categories struggle to establish strong brand identities due to unstable product output and lack of cultural depth, whereas monoliths can create lasting brand impressions [23] Possibility of Snack Monoliths - Emotional value: Consumers are willing to pay a premium for snacks that provide emotional comfort, with 82% of consumers considering emotional value in their purchase decisions [24] - Low price point: Affordable snacks like Japanese "dagashi" (cheap snacks) have broad appeal, especially among children, due to their low cost and accessibility [25] - Diverse channels: The snack industry benefits from a wide range of sales channels, including supermarkets (36.9%) and online platforms, which enhance consumer reach and engagement [26] Case Study: Oreo's Success - Product design: Oreo's naming and design were more modern and appealing compared to its competitor Hydrox, with a simple yet catchy name and a design that evolved over time [34][35] - Channel advantage: Nabisco's early and extensive channel development gave Oreo a significant edge, with $45 million in revenue compared to Sunshine Biscuit's $12 million in 1912 [37] - Brand marketing: Oreo's clear brand positioning as a "fun, child-friendly" product, combined with iconic advertising campaigns like "Twist, Lick, Dunk", helped it surpass Hydrox and become a cultural icon [38][39] Future Outlook Consumer Preferences - Strong satisfaction, low satiety: Snacks that trigger the brain's reward system, such as those high in fat, sugar, or salt, are more likely to become monoliths [44] - Low calorie density: Snacks that are less filling but highly satisfying can counteract the law of diminishing marginal utility, making them more addictive [44] Producer Considerations - Accessibility of raw materials: The availability of key ingredients like sunflower seeds and konjac has driven the growth of related snack categories in China [45] - Taste memory: Products that create a lasting impression on consumers, such as Coca-Cola and Oreo, can achieve long-term success by embedding themselves in consumer habits [46] Investment Recommendations - Chinese spicy and卤-flavored snacks: Companies like YanJinPuZi and JinZai Food are recommended due to their rapid growth in this category [47] - Nut-based snacks: ChaCha Food is recommended for its historical success in the nut snack category, while Three Squirrels and GanYuan Food are worth monitoring [47]