Toly Bread(SH:603866) Huachuang Securities·2024-08-13 03:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 7 CNY, while the current price is 5.77 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.021 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 290 million CNY, a slight decrease of 0.6% [1]. - In Q2 alone, the revenue was 1.621 billion CNY, down 6.33% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 14.24% to 175 million CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability despite declining revenues [2]. - The company is focusing on improving operational quality and shareholder returns, shifting from a growth-centric strategy to one that emphasizes profitability and efficiency [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.541 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 3.2%. The net profit is expected to increase by 5.6% to 606 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 0.38 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 66.21% for the first half of 2024 [1][2].