美股观点：对最近市场下挫的思考 （摘要）

Investment Rating - The report maintains a year-end 2024 target for the S&P 500 index at 5600, representing an 8% increase from current levels [3]. Core Insights - The recent sell-off in the US equity market has been attributed to concerns over the sustainability of economic growth, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a 6% decline over three days [1]. - Despite the downturn, the S&P 500 index remains 9% higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating resilience in the overall market [1]. - Historical data suggests that buying the S&P 500 after a 5% sell-off has typically resulted in positive returns, with a median return of 6% over the following three months [4]. - The report highlights a significant rotation from cyclical to defensive stocks, reflecting investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty [9]. - The expectation of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 is likely to benefit defensive sectors, which historically outperform during such periods [13]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has seen a sharp decline, but the overall level remains above the start of the year, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][3]. - The report notes that the current P/E multiple of the S&P 500 is 20x, consistent with historical averages [3]. Economic Growth - The report forecasts US real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025, suggesting a stable economic environment despite recent market volatility [9]. Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples are expected to perform well as the Fed begins to cut interest rates, with historical data supporting this trend [13][16]. - The report identifies a basket of Stable Growth stocks as an attractive investment strategy during periods of economic deceleration, with these stocks historically outperforming the S&P 500 [16][19]. Valuation Insights - Mega-cap tech stocks have seen a decline in valuations, with their P/E multiple dropping from 32x to 27x, yet still above the 10-year median of 24x [23]. - The report indicates that the median P/E for Stable Growth stocks is 24% higher than the median S&P 500 stock, but this premium is below historical peaks [19]. Small Caps - The Russell 2000 index is expected to be more sensitive to economic growth than interest rate changes, with a significant portion of its companies being unprofitable [25][27].