公用事业行业：我国气电行业目前盈利性如何？

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the utility sector, specifically focusing on the gas power industry [1] Core Views - China's gas power industry has seen accelerated project approvals since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with installed capacity reaching 126 GW by the end of 2023, growing at a CAGR of 12.7% from 2010 to 2023 [6][7] - Gas power generation accounted for 3.2% of China's total electricity generation in 2023, significantly lower than the global average of 23% [8] - Regional concentration is high, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang leading in installed capacity at 39.4 GW, 21.6 GW, and 11.5 GW respectively [13] - Guangdong plans to add 36 GW of gas power capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, the highest among provinces [14][15] Gas Power Development Status National Level - China's gas power capacity grew rapidly during the 12th and 14th Five-Year Plans, with annual additions of 792.2 MW and 895 MW respectively [7] - Despite growth, China's gas power generation share remains low compared to global leaders like the US (31.9%), Japan (39.1%), and Europe (19.8%) [11] Regional Level - Gas power capacity is highly concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, accounting for 80% of the national total [14] - Guangdong leads in planned capacity additions, while Sichuan has been active in project approvals, exceeding its 14th Five-Year Plan target [14][17] Gas Power Business Model and Economics Electricity Pricing Policies - Two-part tariff systems are common in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, with variations based on turbine type or project purpose [28] - Shanghai offers higher capacity tariffs (444.12 RMB/kW/year for peak-shaving units) compared to Guangdong (100 RMB/kW/year) [48] Cost Structure - Fuel costs dominate gas power generation, accounting for 72.5% and 75.8% of total costs in 2022 and 2023 respectively [38] - LNG import price increases since 2021 have significantly raised power generation costs, particularly affecting non-eastern power plants [40] Profitability Analysis - Shanghai-based gas power plants show higher profitability due to stable utilization hours and favorable pricing policies [45] - Guangdong and Zhejiang plants experienced significant profit declines in 2021-2022 due to rising natural gas procurement costs [46] Investment Recommendations - Equipment manufacturing: Focus on companies like Dongfang Electric, Harbin Electric, and Shanghai Electric [50] - Natural gas procurement: Companies with LNG receiving stations, such as ENN Group, Jovo Energy, and Xinao Green Energy, are well-positioned [50] - Gas power plant operations: Stable profitability in Shanghai and Guangdong regions makes companies like Shenzhen Gas, Shanghai Electric Power, and Shenergy attractive [50]