有色金属行业周报：联储降息箭在弦上，商品价格有望触底

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive," expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [37]. Core Views - The report indicates that commodity prices are likely to bottom out due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic policy measures aimed at economic recovery [6][14][28]. - The report highlights that the basic metals sector is experiencing a short-term decline, but the price drop is expected to be limited due to cost support [6][12]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see a rising trend in prices driven by weakening dollar credit and geopolitical tensions [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 2.85% this week, ranking 26th among A-share industries [6][10]. - The performance of various sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with precious metals gaining slightly while industrial metals faced declines [10][11]. 2. Base Metals - LME copper price fell by 2.82% to $8,831 per ton, while domestic copper spot price decreased by 2.57$2,295 per ton, with domestic aluminum spot price down by 0.83% to ¥19,027 per ton [17]. - LME zinc price rose by 2.95% to $2,741 per ton, while domestic zinc spot price fell by 0.63$2,656 per ounce, with domestic gold spot price down by 1.48% to ¥560 per gram [28]. - Comex silver price fell by 4.50% to $30.18 per ounce, while domestic silver spot price decreased by 4.44% to ¥7,114 per kilogram [28]. 4. Energy Metals - Battery-grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.62% to ¥80,300 per ton, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide price fell by 0.67% to ¥77,010 per ton [31]. - The report notes that the energy metals sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and oversupply conditions [31].