(20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/7/22 24/10/2 24/12/13 25/2/23 25/5/6 25/7/17 ◼ 子行业评级 | 酒类 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 饮料 | 无评级 | | 食品 | 无评级 | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | | | 贵州茅台 | 买入 | | 泸州老窖 | 买入 | | 山西汾酒 | 增持 | | 今世缘 | 增持 | | 东鹏饮料 | 买入 | | 有友食品 | 买入 | | 立高食品 | 买入 | | 古茗 | 增持 | | 农夫山泉 | 买入 | | 达势股份 | 买入 | | 安琪酵母 | 买入 | 2025 年 07 月 21 日 行业周报 看好/维持 食品饮料 食品饮料 白酒情绪边际修复，关注中报确定性个股——食品饮料周报 （2025.7.14-2025.7.20） ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 <<业绩窗口期估值切换，关注回调及 低估值个股机会——食品饮料周报 （2025.7.7-2025.7.11）>>--2025- 07-14 <<东鹏饮料：旺季冰柜费投增加，Q2 收入延续高增>>--2025-07-1 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/7/17 6月金融数据点评—— 新增社融及信贷均超预期 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、社融保持超预期扩张 2、M1同比明显上行 ➢ 中国6月M2同比8.3%，预期8.1%，前值7.9%；M1同比4.6%，前值2.3% 。 图表1：金融数据主要分项 | 单位：亿元 | | | | | 当月新增 | | | | | | 同比多增 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/6 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2025/6 | 2025/5 | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | | | 总 | 社融规模 | 41993 | 2 ...

时隔十年再度召开，加快构建房地产新 模式——中央城市工作会议点评 房地产行业点评报告 证券研究报告 2025/7/17 房地产行业报告—— 一、时隔十年再度召开城市工作会议。2025年7月14-15日，中央城市工作会议在北京举行，中共中央总书记、国家 主席、中央军委主席习主席出席会议并发表重要讲话。总结新时代以来我国城市发展成就，分析城市工作面临的形 势，明确做好城市工作的总体要求、重要原则、重点任务。回顾历史，我国曾分别在1962年、1963年、1978年召开 过三次全国城市工作会议，随后于2015年以中央名义召开城市工作会议，本次会议也是继2015年后时隔十年的另一 次召开。 二、城市更新重要性再升级。本次会议强调"以推进城市更新为重要抓手"，并提出"着力建设富有活力的创新城 市，高质量开展城市更新"，体现出城市更新在城市发展中重要性有所提升，且更强调高质量发展；今年5月15日， 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》，其中提出八项主要任务；5月20日，国 新办举行新闻发布会，多部委发声从多方面支持推进城市更新。中央财政支持实施城市更新行动，按区域对城市给 予定额补助，城市更新 ...

策 略 研 究 太 平 2025 年 07 月 17 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.07.17）：百家争鸣 相关研究报告 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 <<窄门 1>>--2025-07-11 <<周而复始>>--2025-07-10 性>>--2025-07-16 头>>--2025-07-15 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.07.14 ） 蓄 势>>--2025-07-14 立>>--2025-07-011 突破>>--2025-07-10 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 大类资产跟踪 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.07.16 ） 韧 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.07.15 ） 牛 回 利率债震荡运行。10 年期国债期货指数在半年线位置震荡运行，与 我们此前判断的相一致，短期来看股市弱势调整和基本面的疲弱仍将支撑 债市高位震荡运行，直至中期股市再次走强压制债市的风险 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/7/17 6月贸易数据点评—— 进出口同比双双回升 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 1、出口同比小幅反弹，二季度出口保持韧性 2、基数叠加数量支撑，进口同比转正 图表1：贸易数据主要分项 | （%） | | 2025-06 | 2025-05 | 2025-04 | 2025-03 | 2025-02 | 2025-01 | 2024-12 | 2024-11 | 2024-10 | 2024-09 | 2024-08 | 2024-07 | 2024-06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进出口差额（亿美元） | | 1147.7 | 1032.2 | 962.4 | 1024.0 | 316.0 | 1384.3 | 1050.6 | 970.2 | 955.5 | 817.1 | 914.8 | 854 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/7/16 6月经济数据点评—— 上半年经济稳中有进 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 1、消费构成二季度经济增长主要支撑 2、工业生产超预期扩张 3、多因素共振，社零增速不及市场预期 4、投资增速受价格因素制约 5、二季度城镇调查失业率小幅下降 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 图表1：经济数据主要分项 1、消费构成二季度经济增长主要支撑 ➢上半年经济增速小幅提升，消费为主要贡献。二季度GDP同比增5.2%，环比看，二季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。上半 年增长5.3%，增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。分产业来看，第三产业对国内生产总值拉动较为明显。上 半年第一产业、第二产业及第三产业增加值分别同比增长3.7%、5.3%、5.5%。不同部门看，消费是GDP增长的主要驱 动。二季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率52.3%，较一季度边际提升；资本形成总额贡献率24.7%，货物和服务净 出口贡献率23%。上半年最终消费支出、资本形成总额、 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a bullish market outlook, indicating that the current market is in a "slow bull" phase, with significant participation opportunities for investors as various sectors show signs of recovery and growth [5][22][23] - The report identifies key support levels for the Shanghai Composite Index at around 3420 points, suggesting that this level can be used as a reference for market strength [5][22] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring oil prices, trading volumes, and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan as critical indicators for market trends and potential corrections [5][22][23] Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The A-share market has seen various indices break out of their previous trading ranges, with the technology and banking sectors leading the charge, while sectors like white wine and coal have underperformed [22][23] - The report notes that the software sector has outperformed, driven by news related to Nvidia's H20 GPU, while other sectors such as power and photovoltaic have shown weakness [23][24] - The report suggests that investors should actively participate in sectors benefiting from policy changes aimed at reducing internal competition, such as photovoltaic, live pig, and glass industries, which are currently at historical low levels [23][24] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Developments - The report outlines that China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with industrial output increasing by 6.8%, indicating a stable economic environment [49][50] - The People's Bank of China has conducted a significant reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating efforts to maintain liquidity in the banking system [49] - The report mentions that the U.S. economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, with job vacancies stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels, which may influence global market sentiment [26][30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [11] Core Insights - The report highlights the upgrade of the "old-for-new" housing policy in Qingdao, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and benefit residents. The new policy framework includes government guidance, policy support, and market operations, with over 4,400 applications received from citizens [8] - The Shenzhen land auction resulted in a new record for land price, with a floor price of 84,180 CNY per square meter and a premium rate of 86.1%, indicating strong market demand [5] - In Guangzhou, eight urban village reconstruction projects have commenced, expected to provide 6,000 housing units upon completion in 2027, marking a significant step in urban development [6] Market Performance - On July 14, 2025, the equity market saw most sectors rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.27% and 0.15%, respectively. However, the Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 1.29% [3] - The top five performing stocks in the real estate sector included Greenland Holdings and Wolong Real Estate, with increases of 10.10% and 10.06%, respectively. Conversely, stocks like Yuhua Development and Guangda Jiabao experienced declines of -10.03% and -9.89% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to be within -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a valuation shift during the earnings window, with a focus on opportunities in undervalued stocks and potential rebounds following recent corrections [4][11]. - The SW food and beverage index increased by 0.8%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, with notable gains in the liquor, health products, and beer sectors, while soft drinks and dairy products saw declines [4][11]. - The report highlights the rebound in the liquor sector, particularly the SW liquor index, which rose by 1.41%, suggesting a recovery from previous overly pessimistic expectations [16][20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [20]. - Key brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for investment due to their stable pricing and market performance [20][23]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing a correction due to downward adjustments in earnings expectations for leading companies, particularly in soft drinks and snacks [21]. - Innovative product launches in the snack segment are highlighted, with companies like Youyou Foods and Weidong introducing new items to capture market share [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in ready-to-drink beverages and the increasing competition in the tea drink market, with a positive outlook for brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [21][22]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy rating with expected EPS growth [23] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold rating with stable performance [23] - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy rating with significant revenue growth forecast [22][23] - Youyou Foods: Buy rating with strong market recovery potential [23] - Nongfu Spring: Buy rating with expected market share recovery [23]

策 略 研 究 太 2025 年 07 月 14 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.07.14）：蓄势 相关研究报告 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 <<窄门 1>>--2025-07-11 <<周而复始>>--2025-07-10 <<策略日报（2025.07.10）上证 50 突破>>--2025-07-10 涨>>--2025-07-09 3500>>--2025-07-08 涨>>--2025-07-07 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 大类资产跟踪 利率债普跌。反内卷下国内定价的商品持续走强，预计股市的上涨 将继续压制债市的风险偏好。三季度贸易战有望尘埃落定，叠加反内卷 带来的通胀止跌的期待，股涨债跌或将持续。但整体来看，基本面的疲弱 仍将使得债市底部较为坚实，预计债市后续将高位宽幅震荡运行。后续展 望：股市大盘突破，债市预计高位宽幅震荡。 券 研 究 报 告 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.07.09 ） 盘 ...