德邦证券：教育行业专题：日本高等教育行业研究-20240813

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the education industry, specifically focusing on Japan's higher education sector [1] Core Views - Japan's higher education sector has shown resilience despite a significant decline in the 18-year-old population, with a 46.5% drop from 1992 to 2023, while higher education enrollment only decreased by 22.0% over the same period [2] - The enrollment rate for higher education in Japan has significantly increased from 57.2% in 1992 to 84.0% in 2023, driven by a rise in university (undergraduate) enrollment rates, which reached 57.7% in 2023 [2][3] - The number of universities (undergraduate) and students has reached record highs, with private universities dominating the sector, accounting for 77% of the total universities and 74% of the student population in 2023 [3] Post-War Development of Japanese Higher Education - Japanese higher education has undergone four distinct phases since World War II: the establishment period (1945-1959), rapid expansion (1960-1975), stagnation and adjustment (1976-1990), and secondary expansion (1990-present) [2][11] - The secondary expansion phase was marked by a shift in reform responsibility from the government to universities, driven by globalization and the corporatization of national universities [18] Higher Education Enrollment Trends - Despite a sharp decline in the 18-year-old population, higher education enrollment has been cushioned by a significant increase in enrollment rates, particularly for universities (undergraduate), which saw a rise from 24.6% in 1990 to 57.7% in 2023 [3][19] - The enrollment rate for women in universities (undergraduate) has surged from 12.7% in 1975 to 54.5% in 2023, narrowing the gender gap in higher education [24] University Structure and Trends - In 2023, Japan had 810 universities (undergraduate), with private universities making up 77% of the total, while national and public universities accounted for 11% and 13%, respectively [30] - The number of private universities has grown significantly since 1949, while the number of national universities has only increased by 18 [30] - The total number of students in universities (undergraduate) reached 2.946 million in 2023, with private universities hosting 74% of the student population [3] Short-Term Universities and Vocational Schools - Short-term universities, which catered primarily to women, have seen a decline in both the number of institutions and student enrollment due to demographic changes and competition from four-year universities [36][38] - Vocational schools, established in 1976, have maintained a relatively stable enrollment, with 2,693 schools and 555,000 students in 2023, predominantly private institutions [40][42] Reform of Vocational Education - In 2019, Japan introduced specialized vocational universities and colleges as part of a broader reform to align higher education with industry needs, creating a new pathway for vocational education at the undergraduate level [46][47] - These reforms aim to address the challenges of rapid industrial changes, declining corporate training, and the need for lifelong learning in a shrinking workforce [45][46]