丘钛科技：手机业务持续回暖，车载出货量高速增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 5.1, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 4.1 [7][9][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for smartphone camera modules and improvements in product structure, leading to increased average selling prices [7][16]. - The automotive camera module business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for profitability improvement as the company engages with domestic and international automotive manufacturers [7][16]. - The report highlights that the fingerprint recognition segment is expected to significantly reduce losses, contributing positively to overall performance [7][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: RMB 13,759 million - 2023: RMB 12,531 million (down 9% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 16,197 million (up 29% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 18,545 million (up 14% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 21,929 million (up 18% YoY) [5][10][14]. - Net profit is projected to recover significantly: - 2022: RMB 171 million - 2023: RMB 82 million (down 52% YoY) - 2024E: RMB 274 million (up 234% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 385 million (up 41% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 513 million (up 33% YoY) [5][10][14]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 3.9% in 2022 to 6.4% by 2026E, reflecting better product mix and cost management [5][10][14]. Segment Performance - The company’s camera module segment is projected to generate significant revenue, with expectations of 221 million units shipped in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 30% increase YoY [13]. - The average selling price for camera modules is anticipated to rise, contributing to revenue growth [13]. - The automotive camera module segment is expected to maintain high growth momentum, with approximately 200,000 units shipped in the first half of 2024 [7][13]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target P/E ratios of 14.0x for smartphone camera modules, 18.0x for other camera modules, 8.0x for fingerprint recognition modules, and 10.0x for other businesses, leading to a target price of HKD 5.1 [7][16][17].