浦银国际研究 策略观点 | 投资策略 浦银国际策略观点：港股能否再创新高？ 今年以来，港股在全球主要股市当中表现亮眼，行情的初期，AI 技术突 破带动市场情绪大幅改善，港股作为"价值洼地"对全球资金吸引力大 幅上升。短期来看，我们预期资金将从拥挤度较高的新消费、创新药和 银行等板块，往拥挤度较低、估值偏低、业绩有望超预期的科技板块轮 动。我们将在本篇报告深入分析驱动这轮行情的核心原因，预判后续行 情的可持续性，以及探讨如何进行策略布局。 赖烨烨 首席策略分析师 Melody_lai@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6441 2025 年 7 月 23 日 浦银国际 策略观点 港股能否再创新高？ 结构性变革下，港股低估值的逻辑被打破。在过去很长一段时间，港 股的估值处于全球市场的低位，即使有不少盈利增长稳定公司，股价 也难以显著上涨。港股由于流动性差、回报不高，对投资者的配置吸 引力偏低，甚至被部分投资者视为"价值陷阱"。近年来，多个压制港 股估值的因素得以改善。投资者结构随着部分外资撤离、南下资金强 劲流入发生改变，港股的流动性受海外资金的影响明显降低。同时， 在中概股回归、资本市场改革推动下，科技 ...

宏观经济 | 数据点评 美国 6 月核心 CPI 回升但低于预期， 料本月议息会议将继续按兵不动 美国核心 CPI 通胀率连续 5 个月低于预期。从环比来看，核心 CPI 通 胀率从 5 月的 0.13%回升到 6 月的 0.23%，仍低于市场预期的 0.3%。 整体 CPI 环比增速亦从 5 月的 0.08%回升到 0.29%，符合市场预期。其 中能源环比通胀率从 5 月的-0.98%转正到 0.95%，食品环比通胀率大 致持平在 0.33%。按同比看，美国整体 CPI 通胀率因为低基数效应回升 0.3 个百分点到 2.7%，核心 CPI 通胀率亦略微上升 0.1 个百分点到 2.9%。 从环比细分数据来看，核心商品 CPI 和扣除住房的核心服务 CPI（超级 核心服务 CPI）有所回升，住房 CPI 略微回落（图表 1）： 与此同时，6 月非农就业数据继续好于预期，但或不能持久。6 月新增 非农就业人数微升到 14.7 万人，远高于市场预期的 10.6 万人（图表 4）。失业率出人意料地从 5 月的 4.244%下降至 6 月的 4.112%（图表 5）。不过，平均时薪增速不论是从环比还是同比的角度来看均 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 146 / USD 38, indicating a potential upside of 19% for the Hong Kong stock and 23% for the US stock [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14.1% year-on-year in Q2, driven by government subsidies and the "618" promotional event, with core e-commerce revenue showing strong growth momentum [1]. - The report anticipates an adjusted net profit of RMB 56 billion for Q2, reflecting the impact of significant investments in the food delivery market, which is expected to lead to short-term profit pressures but also long-term business synergies [2][3]. - The company’s retail revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q2, with growth in the electronics category expected to outpace that of daily necessities [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: - FY23: RMB 1,084,662 million - FY24: RMB 1,158,819 million - FY25E: RMB 1,281,189 million - FY26E: RMB 1,352,876 million - FY27E: RMB 1,423,794 million [3][8]. - Adjusted net profit projections are: - FY23: RMB 35,200 million - FY24: RMB 47,827 million - FY25E: RMB 23,596 million - FY26E: RMB 39,823 million - FY27E: RMB 51,251 million [3][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HKD 122.4, with a 52-week price range of HKD 94.65 to HKD 192.3, and a total market capitalization of HKD 355,476 million [3][5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 2,066 million [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at 7.3x P/E, which is considered low compared to the adjusted target P/E of 10.0x for FY26E [2][3].

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2%, slightly above market expectations of 5.1%[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9% due to low inflation[2] - The economic growth forecast for the second half of the year is maintained at around 4%[10] Domestic Demand - June data showed a significant decline in domestic demand, with retail sales growth dropping from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June, below the expected 5.3%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth fell by 0.9 percentage points to 2.8%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.6%[5] - Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, with property sales down 5.5% in June compared to May's 3.8%[7] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production growth increased by 1 percentage point to 6.8%, exceeding market expectations of 5.6%[5] - Exports maintained a robust growth rate, with a trade surplus growth of 24.5% year-on-year in Q2, although lower than Q1's 49%[9] Inflation and Employment - The CPI turned positive in June at 0.1%, ending four months of negative readings, while the core CPI rose slightly to 0.7%[8] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, consistent with expectations[5] Policy Outlook - The upcoming political bureau economic meeting is unlikely to introduce significant new policies, but attention will be on potential real estate support measures and "anti-involution" strategies[11] - Fiscal policy may see an acceleration in government bond issuance, with 2.3 trillion yuan of local government special bonds remaining for the second half of the year[12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the sentiment index for the Hong Kong stock market is at a level of 0.67, which is 1.5 standard deviations above its one-year moving average, reflecting an optimistic sentiment [2][5] - The sentiment index has shown volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which caused a temporary decline to -0.18, but it has since recovered following a ceasefire agreement [2][5] - The report highlights that nine out of thirteen indicators contributing to the sentiment index have shown strong improvement, including increased main board trading volume and a shift from net outflow to net inflow of foreign capital [2][5][6] Group 2 - The report suggests a short-term investment strategy focusing on technology sectors, as previous high-performing sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals may face profit-taking pressure [2][5] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a barbell strategy, increasing allocation to technology stocks that benefit from AI development while also ensuring stable cash flow from dividend-paying stocks [2][5] - The report notes that the forward P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Index is currently at 10.3 times, indicating a potential for further valuation recovery, although new catalysts are needed for significant upward movement [2][5]

宏观观点 美联储 6 月继续暂停降息，关税 对通胀的影响仍是降息关键 6 月美联储会议继续决定暂停降息，符合市场预期。会议声明和季度 经济预测更新（SEP）的主要变化有： 扫码关注浦银国际研究 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 浦银国际 宏观观点 美联储 6 金晓雯，PhD，CFA 1. 应对关税挑战，美联储下调了今明两年 GDP 预测，上调了 2025- 2027 年的失业率和通胀预期，这或意味滞涨风险上升。会议声明 的最显著变化是关于不确定性的表述。声明称"经济前景有关的不 确定性已经减弱，但仍然偏高"，而上次声明的说辞是"经济前景 有关的不确定性进一步增加"。而美联储的 SEP 经济预测调整似乎 计入了现有关税政策对经济的影响：首先，SEP 再次下调今年的经 济增速预测至 1.4%（此前为 1.7%），和我们在下半年展望报告中下 修后的 1.3%经济增速预测接近。明年的经济增速预测也被下调 0.2 个百分点到 1.6%。美联储亦再次上调今年失业率预期 0.1 个百分 点到 4.5%。明后年的失业率预测分别上调 0.2 和 0.1 ...

宏观经济 | 数据点评 中国宏观数据点评：5 月消费表现 强劲，但投资和生产数据逊于预期 核心观点：5 月实体经济数据显示供给端或受关税影响有所走弱，工 业生产和制造业投资增速均有所下滑。内需方面则呈现出消费需求 强、投资需求弱的局面。不过我们认为 5 月强消费或由于黄金周消 费、"618"电商促销活动叠加消费品"以旧换新"政策的共振效应， 其可持续性仍有不确定性。此外，5 月房价和房产销售的继续走弱亦 令人担心。尽管如此，在关税维持现状的背景下，我们预计增量政策 刺激或将至少挪后至 9 月。我们认为在 7 月下旬的季度政治局经济 会议上，政府或不会发布显著的增量政策措施。短期内政府或更为重 视已公布政策的落实和成效观望。然而，考虑到尚不均衡和稳固的经 济复苏，以及今年以来已经增加的 30%出口到美国商品关税影响的 逐渐显现，我们认为政府最快在 9 月或会推出 0.5-1.0 万亿元的财政 资金支持，并再次降准 50 个基点和降息 10-20 个基点。 5 月社会消费品零售总额同比增速远超预期反弹，受益于黄金周消费、 "618"电商促销活动和消费品"以旧换新"政策的共振效应。社会 消费品零售总额同比增速从 4 ...

Inflation Data - The U.S. May CPI inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2.4%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year due to a low base effect[1] - Core CPI inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, core CPI inflation slowed from 0.24% in April to 0.13% in May, below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth rate decreased from 0.22% in April to 0.08% in May, also below the market expectation of 0.2%[1] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding market expectations of 126,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May[1] - Labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% in April to 62.4% in May[1] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices fell month-on-month from 0.06% in April to -0.04% in May, with clothing seeing the largest decline at -0.42%[2] - Super core services CPI growth slowed to 0.06% in May from 0.23% in April, influenced by declines in transportation and healthcare prices[2] - Owner's equivalent rent inflation rate decreased to 0.27% in May from 0.36% in April, indicating a potential end to previously high rental inflation[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in June and July, with a potential rate cut delayed until at least September[4] - The Fed may consider a total of two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, unless labor market data deteriorates significantly[4] - If tariffs are fully implemented, the Fed may need to adjust its stance, potentially leading to larger rate cuts of 75-100 basis points[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 95, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 81.1 [2][9][10] Core Insights - The report highlights positive data updates for IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2) in lung squamous cell carcinoma (sq-NSCLC), with median progression-free survival (mPFS) extended to 9.3 months, enhancing confidence in its development [1][7] - IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC) also showed promising data in pancreatic cancer, with mPFS consistent with previous reports [1][7] - The company is expected to initiate Phase 3 clinical trials for IBI363 in third-line sq-NSCLC, with the 3mg/kg dose likely to be used [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 6,206 million - 2024: RMB 9,422 million - 2025E: RMB 11,691 million - 2026E: RMB 13,159 million - 2027E: RMB 15,805 million - The projected growth rates are 36.2% for 2023, 51.8% for 2024, and 24.1% for 2025 [9][10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, reaching RMB 433 million, and further increasing to RMB 1,893 million by 2027 [9][10] Market Expectations - The report indicates that IBI363 has the potential to achieve peak sales of approximately RMB 2.5 billion in China, while IBI343 could reach around RMB 1.5 billion [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of IBI363 as a potential solution for PD-1 resistance, which could significantly impact its market performance [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 95, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 81.1 [2][9][10] Core Insights - The report highlights positive updates on IBI363 and IBI343, with IBI363 showing an extended median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in the 3 mg/kg dose group for IO-treated squamous non-small cell lung cancer (sq-NSCLC), enhancing confidence in its development for lung squamous carcinoma [1][7][10] - The company is expected to initiate Phase 3 registration clinical trials for IBI363 in the 3L+ sq-NSCLC setting, with the 3 mg/kg dose likely to be used [7][10] - Financial projections indicate a significant increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of RMB 11.7 billion in 2025 and a net profit of RMB 433 million [9][10] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.8 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% [9][10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 1.03 billion by 2025 and RMB 2.66 billion by 2027 [9][10] - The report anticipates peak sales for IBI363 in China to reach approximately RMB 2.5 billion and for IBI343 to reach around RMB 1.5 billion, both on a risk-adjusted basis [10]