全球经济分析：哪些因素决定了各国中性实际利率的差异？ （摘要）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company or industry analyzed [1]. Core Insights - The neutral real rate (r*) is a crucial benchmark for monetary policy and financial markets, representing the equilibrium real policy rate that neither stimulates nor contracts economic growth [3][4]. - Recent estimates suggest that the neutral real rates in the US and other major developed economies are higher than previously thought, particularly post-pandemic [1]. - The study highlights that the differences in neutral real rates across countries are primarily driven by GDP per capita, inflation rates, and current account balances, with specific impacts quantified [1][17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Neutral Real Rate Estimation - The neutral real rate can be estimated through economic models or inferred from financial market pricing, with market-based measures being particularly useful for cross-country comparisons [4][5][6]. - The analysis includes 12 developed and 24 emerging market economies, using data back to 2000 to derive neutral real rate estimates [6]. Cross-Country Differences - The report identifies that the neutral real rates in emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem over the past 25 years, with fluctuations largely driven by changes in US/global r* [9][10]. - Factors affecting country-specific risk premia, such as economic development levels and inflation volatility, play a significant role in explaining cross-country differences in r* [11][12]. Key Drivers of Neutral Real Rates - The analysis finds that a 10 percentage point increase in GDP per capita lowers neutral real rates by 12 basis points, while a 1 percentage point increase in average inflation raises them by 33 basis points [17]. - Improvements in current account balances lead to a decrease in neutral real rates, with a 1 percentage point improvement lowering rates by 7 basis points in general and by 20 basis points in emerging economies [17]. Macroeconomic Stability - The findings suggest that macroeconomic stability can yield high returns, with lower inflation and improved external balances providing pathways to sustainably lower interest rates and capital costs [19][20]. - The case of Turkey illustrates that strong economic growth does not necessarily correlate with high equilibrium rates, indicating that effective macroeconomic policies can lead to lower real interest rates [21].