美国经济分析：围绕美国大选的十点观察（英译中）

Election Dynamics and Polling Trends - The presidential race has shifted significantly, with Vice President Harris now leading by around 3pp nationally, up from a 1pp lead earlier [4][6] - Harris has gained ground in key swing states, particularly in Sunbelt states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, where her support has increased by 5pp on average [6] - The race remains highly competitive, with 7 swing states worth a combined 100 electoral votes now within roughly 2pp of even [6][7] Policy Implications of Election Outcomes - A Democratic sweep could lead to significant fiscal legislation in 2025, including higher corporate and high-income taxes, expanded family benefits, and new welfare programs [2] - In a divided government scenario, policy changes would be more limited, with only the expiration of certain 2017 tax cuts for high-income individuals likely to occur [2] - Harris is expected to release an economic plan soon, which may resemble Biden's budget proposal but with additional spending on areas like healthcare, childcare, and housing [40] Congressional and Senate Outlook - Democrats hold a slight 0.8pp lead in the generic ballot for the House, but the Senate remains highly competitive, with Democrats likely to lose Sen Manchin's seat in West Virginia [30][35] - Prediction markets now favor a Harris win with divided government as the most likely outcome, overtaking the previous consensus of a Republican sweep [37][38] - A Democratic House and Republican Senate would likely shift the political center slightly to the left, given the Senate's historical tendency to operate closer to the center [39] Economic and Market Influences - Economic indicators like GDP growth, consumption, and payrolls have a stronger relationship with election outcomes than equity market moves, particularly earlier in the election year [19][22] - A rise in the unemployment rate could negatively impact the incumbent party, with each 0.1pp increase associated with a 0.4pp reduction in the Democratic vote share [23] - Voters' trust in handling the economy remains mixed, with recent polls showing Harris gaining a slim advantage, though Trump still leads in some key states [26][27]