全球云厂商复盘系列（一）：微软资本开支与ROIC

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Microsoft continues to maintain high capital expenditures in FY24Q4 and FY25 to meet the growth demands of AI and cloud products, with capital expenditures reaching $19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 77.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.7% [4][2] - The increase in capital expenditures is expected to enhance technology and capacity but may also lead to short-term financial pressure, impacting profits and cash flow over the next several quarters [2][4] - Historical data indicates that while capital expenditures can initially pressure profits, the market's concerns tend to ease once cloud revenue begins to ramp up significantly [2][24] Summary by Sections 01 Model Assumptions - Assumptions are made to enhance the accuracy of model predictions, including the calculation of depreciation expenses based on disclosed cash flow statements [6][8][10] 02 Historical Data Review and Forecast - Historical data from 2008-2015 serves as a reference for understanding the impact of increased capital expenditures on profits and cash flow [13][15] - The report predicts that the increase in capital expenditures will lead to a gradual decline in ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) due to rising depreciation and amortization expenses [19][31] 03 Other Major Companies' Capital Expenditure Analysis - Major global cloud providers, including Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with Microsoft’s capital expenditure reaching $13.9 billion in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 55% [29][30] - The report highlights that while capital expenditures are rising, the corresponding revenue growth from cloud services is not keeping pace, indicating potential challenges ahead [31][22]