水泥新时代研究专题之二：西藏水泥：供需傍水生，盈利尚可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Despite a nationwide decline in cement demand, Tibet Cement has experienced counter-cyclical growth driven by key infrastructure projects and a gradual resolution of regional supply issues. Future major projects, particularly in water conservancy, are expected to enhance capacity utilization and profitability in the region [3][5]. - The report recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Tibet Tianlu as beneficiaries of the regional dynamics [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Story - The report highlights that Tibet's cement demand remains robust, with a production increase of 51% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 11.98 million tons, significantly outperforming the national average decline of 0.7% [5][19]. 2. Overview: Cement Supply and Demand Changes in Tibet - The price stability of cement in Tibet has been maintained between 600-700 RMB/ton since 2016, with a notable drop only between late 2021 and early 2022 due to increased competition from new capacity [8][11]. 3. Supply Structure: High Concentration and Strict Capacity Control - The regional supply structure is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding an 80% market share. The report notes that the region's capacity has stabilized since 2022 due to strict management of new capacity and self-discipline in production [12][19]. 4. Demand: Steady Growth in Key Projects and Water Conservancy Engineering - Major project investments in Tibet are projected to stabilize demand at over 10 million tons. In 2024, planned investments in key projects are expected to reach 161.8 billion RMB, a 13% increase from 2023 [24][25]. - Water conservancy projects, particularly in the Yarlung Tsangpo and Lancang rivers, are anticipated to contribute an additional annual demand of approximately 300,000 tons of cement [25][30]. 5. Regional Cement Price and Volume Expected to Improve - The report indicates that as capacity utilization improves, the profitability of regional cement companies is likely to increase. Huaxin Cement is noted for its optimal product structure, particularly in special low-heat cement, which aligns well with the needs of major infrastructure projects [34][37].