BCHT(SH:688276) Tianfeng Securities·2024-08-14 00:07Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.97 CNY per share, adjusted from a previous rating [7]. Core Insights - Baike Bio is a high-tech biopharmaceutical company specializing in the research, production, and sales of human vaccines, with a strong market presence in varicella (chickenpox) vaccines and a promising launch of the herpes zoster vaccine [1][16]. - The varicella vaccine has maintained a leading market share for years, generating significant revenue, while the newly approved herpes zoster vaccine is expected to achieve rapid market penetration due to its differentiated advantages [2][3]. - The nasal spray influenza vaccine, launched in 2020, has unique advantages and is showing signs of recovery in sales, indicating potential for steady growth in the future [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Baike Bio focuses on infectious disease prevention and has extensive experience in large-scale vaccine production, with a well-established quality management system [14]. - The company has successfully launched multiple vaccines, including the world's first varicella vaccine with a 36-month shelf life and the first domestic herpes zoster vaccine [16]. 2. Varicella Vaccine Market - The varicella vaccine market is expected to expand, with the company holding a leading position. In 2023, the varicella vaccine generated 820 million CNY in revenue, accounting for 44.92% of total revenue [2][22]. - Factors such as the adoption of a two-dose vaccination strategy and inclusion in local immunization programs are anticipated to drive market growth [38][40]. 3. Herpes Zoster Vaccine - The herpes zoster vaccine, approved in 2023, is the first domestic vaccine for individuals aged 40 and above, filling a significant market gap and expected to achieve rapid sales growth [3][48]. - The global market for herpes zoster vaccines is growing, and China presents a substantial opportunity for expansion [3]. 4. Nasal Spray Influenza Vaccine - The nasal spray influenza vaccine is unique in its formulation and is targeted at children aged 3-17. In 2023, it generated 122 million CNY in revenue, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.85% [4]. - The product's unique delivery method is expected to enhance compliance among recipients, contributing to its future growth [5]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.28 billion CNY, 25.33 billion CNY, and 28.40 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.82 billion CNY, 8.18 billion CNY, and 10.07 billion CNY [5]. - The report highlights the company's strong growth potential, particularly with the new herpes zoster vaccine and the unique advantages of the nasal spray influenza vaccine [5].