WYNN MACAU(01128) 东吴证券国际·2024-08-14 00:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2024 was below expectations, with a profit margin decrease of 2.3 percentage points to 31.7% [3] - The company achieved gaming revenue of 140 million and $740 million respectively [2][3] - The management indicated that despite a decline in market share in Q2 2024, the market share has rebounded to expected levels by July 2024 due to strong mass market betting and high hotel occupancy rates [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 24,268 million, with expected growth to HKD 30,193 million in 2024, HKD 32,396 million in 2025, and HKD 34,142 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 330% in 2023 and 24.4% in 2024 [2][6] - Adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted to be HKD 7,467 million in 2023, increasing to HKD 9,674 million in 2024, HKD 10,187 million in 2025, and HKD 10,740 million in 2026 [2][6] - The adjusted property EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in 2024 [3] Market Share and Competitive Position - The company's market share in mass gaming and overall gaming revenue decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 13.9% and 12.6% respectively in Q2 2024 [2][3] - The management plans to focus on enhancing product and service quality while maintaining a cautious approach to investments amid competitive market conditions [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net income forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down to HKD 30.19 billion, HKD 32.40 billion, and HKD 34.14 billion respectively [3] - The target price for the stock is set at HKD 9.5, corresponding to an EV/Adjusted Property EBITDA of 7.3x for 2024, 7.0x for 2025, and 6.6x for 2026 [3]